Champion Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson (28-6, 3-0 UFC) vs. Forrest Griffin (15-4, 6-2 UFC)

Bandwagons are hard to resist, the same goes for trendy picks. Several years ago the Arizona Cardinals were a trendy pick to win the NFC West, instead they were mediocre while a division rival made it to Super Bowl XL. I can’t help but feel the same thing about the recent trend to pick Forrest Griffin to win in this fight. Rampage is the clear favorite (he won even in the UFC: Undisputed videogame demo) right now Vegas has the odds at -260 Rampage while Forrest is +200.

Recent analysis of the upcoming fight has lead to the trendy/bandwagon pick in favor of Forrest. Randy Couture recently voiced his opinion that Forrest will win. No one can fault Randy for picking someone that fights out of his gym, Xtreme Couture. But Randy’s word has become gospel in MMA circles since he predicted a string of upsets correctly. The presence of Wanderlei Silva (he kicked the shit out of Rampage twice in Pride) at Xtreme Couture has given further credence to the arguments in favor of Forrest. Coupled with Forrest defeating #1 light heavyweight Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua, a fighter who also holds a devastating victory over Rampage gives further fodder to the popularity of the Forrest pick.

The arguments essentially follow the script that Forrest will obtain a submission for the win a la Shogun or use Wanderlei style knees in the clinch to dispatch Rampage. I am not buying either argument (though they shouldn’t be dismissed). Forrest has never shown great ground game or a great clinch game. Arguing that a fighter will dominate another using a skill set he has never exemplified in seems a little far reaching. Put it this way if a basketball player has been a post player his whole life and a match up in a game favors him if he shoots from the perimeter doesn’t mean he will excel at the 3-point shot. In fact he will probably do worse when playing out of his game. Forrest's fighting style is more of a brawling type with four of his eight UFC fights going to the judges card. He has one TKO in the UFC against Elvis Sinosic and besides the Shogun submission (explained below) he has submitted Bill Mahood. Not a very attractive fight finishing resume.

In Forrest’s three biggest fights he is 1-2 (loses against Tito Ortiz and Keith Jardine) with the victory over Shogun being a triumph of superior cardio, Shogun gased out due to the torn ACL that inhibited conditioning training allowing the late submission. There is no reason to think Rampage will gas considering he went the full five rounds with Dan Henderson. The mention of Dan Henderson, a wrestler with an Olympic pedigree, brings up another Jackson advantage. If Jackson could neutralize Henderson’s wrestling how is Forrest going to out wrestle Rampage to the ground to get the submission when Forrest’s wrestling is inferior to Henderson (note: Henderson is smaller than both Rampage and Forrest). Plus Griffin’s greatest asset throughout his career has been his chin yet Keith Jardine showed that it isn’t iron clad. Jackson’s power is easily equal and most likely greater, just ask Chuck Liddell.

All this being said it seems that any way you slice the fight it favors Jackson and the arguments for Forrest don’t hold up. However this is MMA and even superior fighters can loose in fluky ways. So don’t dismay Forrest fans this fight will be entertaining and our prediction it will be akin to the Griffin-Ortiz fight and represent a proving ground to Forrest’s fighting pedigree.

Pick: Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson by howling KO in the second round.