Weighing In: Big Issues

In an effort to bring more content to WKR, we are teaming up with Michael Comeau of mmaeruption.com for a new feature called 'Weighing In'.

1.) The UFC comped a third of their tickets for UFC 92. Is this foreshadowing for a difficult economic year?

Michael Comeau: 2009 will be a difficult year for everyone who isn't a repo man or suicide hotline phone rep, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the UFC take some lumps on the live gates, especially in Vegas. However, the UFC has several things going for it in 2009.

Pay-per-view dollars vastly outweigh what the company takes in at the live shows, and a $45 event isn't that expensive if you have 5 or 6 friends chipping in for it. There will be some slowdown there, particularly on the weaker cards like UFC 93, but it won't be disastrous. Also, the UFC is very smart by making a good deal of fighter compensation based on performance - this way, the company isn't stuck paying fighters huge dollars if an event sell. (cough, Affliction, cough)

But most importantly, the recession will make it extremely tough for any new competitors to encroach upon the UFC's dominance of big-time MMA. We've already seen the IFL, EliteXC, and others go under, and Affliction will likely be next.

Zak Woods: The down economy is going to have an effect on the UFC Put it this way, the worst recession in over 60 years and you are expecting it to not hurt sports in some way? That seems extremely naïve and hopeful. Now the question should be how much will it be affected? I don't think it will be too bad. There is enough diversity of venues and it is a strong enough niche market to weather the storm. But I wouldn't be surprised if the UFC is forced to lower tickets prices, comp a few more, and make up the ground on the big PPV's, like UFC 94.

2.) Will MMA become legalized in New York in 2009?

ZW: No, but it will be close. The New York Assembly is notorious for being bogged down in deadlock. With a 15 billion dollar deficit over the next two years, that they are required by law to balance, it will take up a lot of legislative hours. Not a big deal with 12 months right to pass legislation right? Wrong, the Assembly ends its session in June. So while MMA legislation might get out of committee, I don't think it will pass the floor and be signed into law by June. But I am a big pessimist.


MC: As a lifelong New York resident, this is a deeply personal issue for me, because I'd love to head to Madison Square Garden for a UFC event. However, I doubt it will happen. The gears in Albany move extremely slowly and the UFC simply doesn't have the allies here to make it happen yet.

My advice to Zuffa - get labor and the NY tourism industry and labor on your side. People plan entire vacations around UFC events, and that means business for hotels, restaurants, shops, and hot dog vendors.

3.) Afflictions second show is occurring the weekend of the 24th. Will they go the way of EliteXC and fold during 2009?

MC: Absolutely. Affliction clothes are going out of style very quickly. I mean, there's a reason Filene's Basement is overloaded with racks of skull-laden t-shirts.  And now they're trying to build a future by promoting MMA events. Affliction made a stupid mistake by taking on the UFC so quickly. If they focused on smaller, regional shows where they could actually squeeze out some profits, they could be building a business for the long term.


ZW: Yes, but this all depends on where the goal posts are placed. If Affliction says they are going to put on a third show, then delay it, delay it and delay it until 2010 then they haven't actually folded, though it would appear inevitable. This weekend will be a vitality check for the promotion. If they can hold serve with such a saturated market UFC 93, UFC 94, WEC 38 and the Golden Boy counter promotion. Then there may be hope, but not much.