WKR gambling adivce for UFC 94

Let me say this first, "Don't listen to me!" I occasionally listen to gambling advice or fantasy advice and am often led in the completely wrong direction. Gambling experts are often looking for good probabilities for return on their dollar, something that pushes them into making bad bets while looking for the big pay off on 10-1 odds.

That being said I figured I would give readers an insight into what I am betting on this weekend

George St. Pierre (-185) over B.J. Penn (+155)
First I think that St. Pierre is the better fighter at 170lbs. he will be simply too large and too smart to allow Penn to win. With the added length of the fight I feel that rounds four and five will most certainly go to St. Pierre, tipping the odds of a decision victory in George's favor. At -185 this bet feels like a low risk decent return, something I personally look for in a fight.

Clay Guida (even) over Nate Diaz (-130)
I don't feel confident in this bet at all. Guida was submitted late in a fight he was wining against Roger Huerta, and that is exactly what happened in Nate Diaz's last fight. Yet Guida is a just a better fighter with a better body of work, though judges seem to have a nack for screwing him. The best part about this bet is that its even money making it a good pay off, even if my stomach is sick over the idea.


Lyoto Machida (-285) over Thiago Silva (+225)
Machida is probably one fight away from getting a title shot, what makes you think he will risk that by being wild. No, he will pick apart Silva for a decision victory. This is my low risk negilable reward bet to ensure I make something with all the betting I am doing.  This fight is also an excellent parlay candidate if your betting site (or local mob bookie) allows it. I would parlay it with  Jon Fitch or Karo Parisyan.

Super Bowl Bet
Mitch Berger's shortest punt over 31.5 yards at -115. Berger is a bad punter but not that bad, especially in sunny Florida. Of all the Prop bets this feels the safest to me. Besides Ben pooched punted in the San Diego game so they would most likely do the same in a similar situation. At -115 good return on your money. Don't listen to Cousin Sal, if the Steelers are 1st and goal the one they will hand the ball off the Gary Russell.