Bader vs. Schafer

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Ryan "Darth" Bader 9-0 (2-0 UFC) vs. Eric "Red" Schafer 11-3 (3-2 UFC)

The Story So Far:

Bader is TUF season 8 winner and future prospect in the light heavyweight division.  Before joining The Ultimate Fighter Bader was a dominating wrestler at Arizona State University.  He was a three time PAC 10 Champion and two time D-1 All American.  His college career at ASU is how he found Arizona Combat Sports and he began training for MMA in 2007.  Arizona Combat Sports is turning into one of the top camps across the country and Bader is training with top talent which is a positive sign for future success.

Ryan Bader went into the show with a 7-0 record and the favorite to win the show.  He did not disappoint and used his strong wrestling and big right hand to win the 8^th season.  He also showed his frat boy history by not even blinking an eye after eating piss fruit.  Comical, yes.  Disgusting, yes.  Weirdly unfazed, definitely yes.

"Red" is on his second stint with the UFC.  After going 1-2 during his first campaign he won two fights outside the promotion to earn a spot again.  This time he is on a two fight win streak beating Houston Alexander and Antonio "Iron Jaw" Mendes.  Despite TKOing Mendes (who hasn't) Schafer is a BJJ black belt with eight of his 11 wins coming via submission. 

With lack luster depth on the main card the UFC is once again airing some fights for free on Spike.  With Bader having TUF notoriety and being a solid young prospect it was obvious that this fight would make the free fights.  It is another opportunity for Bader to build his popularity, but it is also a great opportunity for Schafer to gain some name amongst the casual fan.

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Conventional Wisdom:

Bader is going to be a huge favorite.  He is undefeated and if you have not picked up on this yet; he is a strong prospect for the future.  Wrestlers have a good pedigree in MMA and Bader posses a big right hand which can end fights.  This is a good combination as his wrestling can control fights and his power can finish fights.  While Schafer's chin is not glass, it is also not granite.  Two of his three loses come the way of TKO.  His loss to Bisping also happened after he was winning the first round and nearly finished "The Count" with two different submission attempts.  All these things lead conventional wisdom to favorite the Star Wars fan to add another win to his resume.

WKR Analysis:

While all the above is true people seem to be giving Schafer not enough credit.  Betting odds are not created to detail who will win the fight.  They are made to get people to bet evenly between the opponents as the make their money on the juice.  So when you have a very well-known, popular fighter against a relatively unknown fighter the odds are inflated.  Schafer is not as big an underdog as the lines might indicate.  Despite getting TKOd he did almost finish that fight against a solid wrestler/grappler in Michael Bisping.  He also appears to have developed his overall game since he left the UFC.  At the time of his dismissal he had zero, count that ZERO, wins by KO/TKO in 12 fights.  Since then he has two wins via TKO in only four fights.  His best attribute is also his submission game which has notoriously caused problems for wrestlers in the past.  This was not a problem for Bader against Vinny, but Vinny had no striking to match his grappling.  If "Red" has developed his striking game to a competent level it may force/frustrate Bader where he could resort to his comfort zone, wrestling.

I am not totally original because in the end I think Bader will win the fight.  I am pretty high on him as he appears to have enough defense on the ground and power on his feet to really make a splash.  Schafer will be here to stay this time in the UFC.  The only problem he is facing a fighter that he matches up poorly against.  Bader's wrestling is good enough to keep the fight on the feet and Schafer's striking is not there yet to match Bader's power.