WKR Gambling Advice UFC 104

The following gambling advice column uses $100 as a starting point.  This is how I would place my bets if I only had a $100.  The purpose is not to offer people an option who do not gamble with a lot of money, but a way to track profit/loss.  If I were to take three major underdogs and hit one I could potentially win big money, but my record would show as 1-2.  On the other hand I could place 3 bets and put lots of money on one fight and place only a small bet on the other two.  If I win my two small bets and lose my big bet I would be down a lot of loot (yes I called it loot), but my record would show 2-1.  Betting money lines is different than betting with spreads therefore I believe this is a better way to track if I am Raymond Babbitt or Brandon Lang.

Through UFC 102 and 103 I have made a profit of 16.5%.  Using the $200 allotment over the two events I would have walked with $233.

*Whenever gambling it is always important to compare lines.  These lines are via mmamoneyline.com which shows what sites over the best lines for each fight.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Let me start of by saying the odds are huge for UFC 104.  At Bodog 7 of the 8 fights have a fighter at either + or - 250 and half the fights are a +300/-450 odds.  I could improve my record and bet on all the favorites, but I am going to try and make money and find the right underdogs (a.k.a. lose money).

Anthony Johnson -320 ($40): This fight is tailor made for Johnson.  I would take him with even larger odds.  If Yoshida can close the distance and get the fight to the ground I am going to be out some good money, but that should not happen.  The UFC will hype this as Johnson finally beating a submission fighter, but that is not a fair statement.  Johnson's wrestling, size, strength, and most importantly his ridiculous reach advantage should never let this fight get to the mat.  With the reach and striking advantage I do not know how Yoshida will get in close to execute and Judo takedowns.  Expect Johnson to look very good and continue to get hype as he is fed a fighter tailor made for him (smaller and poor striker).

Okami -220 ($35): I am always nervous picking a fighter after an injury, but the match up seriously favors Okami.  Okami and Sonnen have very similar strengths except Okami is better at those strengths than Sonnen.  The fact Okami is boring, not a fan favorite, and Sonnen just looked great against Miller helps Okami's odds here.  I like the odds and even though you might not see the fight I think it is a good bet.

Ben Rothwell +300 ($15):  I think Velasquez is going to win, but Rothwell is a legit test for the young talent.  Rothwell has a size and experience advantage that he can hopefully use to his advantage.  Odds are created to encourage equal betting on both fighters, they are not the odds to show who will win.  When you have a popular well known fighter (Velasquez) fighting against someone who many people have not seen fight (Rothwell) then you can usually find good odds.

Schafer +360 ($10): Another fight were I am picking someone I expect to lose.  I believe Bader will win the fight, but getting Schafer at plus 300 is a great value.  This is another situation where odds makers are making Bader more of a favorite because everyone knows who he is.  TUF has helped us with the odds.  If Bader uses his wrestling to keep the fight up he should be able to catch Schafer, but Schafer's striking has improved and he does not have a glass chin.  This is another good value if you are looking for an underdog.

Through UFC 102 and 103 I am 7-3.  But if you read the top I do not like that as a indicator for gambling advice