I kind of want to know, could a Shogun slay a Dragon? Probably not.

View full size photo »

Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida 15-0 (7-0 UFC) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua 18-3 (2-1 UFC):

The Story so Far: I always like writing the preview for the main event, especially when it is a title fight.  The truth is that if you are visiting this website around this time and are interested in MMA you know the story so far.  Especially when this fight is the only real drawing power on the whole card for the casual fan.  However, a quick recap:  Machida is undefeated and arguably one of the most dominate fighters in the UFC, possibly of all time.  He has never lost a round in the UFC and it so far appears no one can figure him out.  Before his last two knockouts the UFC more or less ignored him as he was a boring, yet still dominating fighter.  After two finishes and improving his English (it matters) the UFC is now letting the public know how amazing Machida is and can become.

Shogun was the most dominating and arguably best light heavyweight in the world a few years ago with PRIDE.  His run through the grand prix was spectacular and the UFC could not wait to have him fight for them.  Then two reconstructive knee surgeries happened and he was not what he once was.  A loss to Forrest Griffin, an ugly (to say the least) win against Coleman, and a finish against an over the hill fighter has put him in the title fight. Despite not earning this shot (based on his time in the UFC) he is real dangerous.  The more time that elapses the more time he has to heal, the more comfortable he is with his knee, and the more likely we see the Shogun of old.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Conventional Wisdom:

Machida is a huge favorite and rightfully so.  He has amazing timing, angles, and defense.  All these are a perfect match up for an aggressive fighter like Shogun.  The scary thing is that Machida apparently does not have a real weakness and he is also the smartest fighter in the cage.  Rumor has it Shogun might take the fight to the mat and while they may be more evenly matched on the mat the advantage still goes to Machida.  Without soccer kicks and foot stomps Shogun may not be able to get the position he needs to on the mat.

However, Shogun is an aggressive fighter with a great skill set and he can win any fight he is in.  He is a dangerous striker and has finished many opponents on the ground (not via submission).  Having looked better in each fight and getting more used to the cage might be a reason we see a better Shogun.

WKR Analysis:

Conventional wisdom is pretty spot on.  Like I stated above we might see the Shogun of old, no fighter is invisible, and anything can happen so Shogun can win this.  His odds should not be as high as they are, but push come to shove Machida is going to win.  He has an advantage everywhere and Shogun's aggressive style is tailor made for a counter striker like Machida.  Machida has faced fighters as fast and as strong before.  The one thing Shogun has that might help his cause is the versatility of his striking.  He truly uses all 8 points of contact and needs to use all 8 to try and disrupt Machida's timing.  If Shogun becomes predictable he has no chance.  From what we hear I think Shogun wants to take the fight to the mat.  I do not like this plan as Shogun was notorious for using two moves not legal in the UFC (stomps, soccer kicks) to pass guard and win fights on the ground.  If I am him (thank god I'm not, I do not want Machida to kick my ass) I try and close the distance and avoid the leg sweep.  Easier said than done, but it is probably his best shot.  Expect another dominate performance from Machida and the UFC scrambling to find another competitor due to the A-Team.