WKR Staff Picks UFC 104

Champ Lyoto Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3) for light-heavyweight title

Nick Becker: Quite simply, Machida is at the top of his game.  At the moment there's no one at 205 that looks even capable of winning a round against him.  For all the flak that he received in his first four UFC bouts for being a "boring" fighter, Machida saved UFC 94 and 98 with his scintillating KO's.  Machida should be able to put an exclamation point on what looks to be (on paper, at least) like another mundane night of fights.  Shogun hasn't looked great in years; but even at his peak, I don't believe he'd stand a chance against The Dragon.  Look for the finish to come at some point in the second round, with your winner and still champion, Machida by KO Round 2.

Zach Krantz: Shogun is still at a point in his career where he can win any fight he goes into.  He possesses a versatile striking game, has unmatched aggression, and is a terrific athlete.  He is not as big an underdog as he is being portrayed.  If I were to bet on the fight I would take Shogun.  However, that is because of his odds and if I am picking who wins the fight then I will go with "The Dragon." A counter striker with amazing angles, timing, and precision is the perfect match up for an aggressive fighter.  If Shogun tries to take it to the mat he does not have the top control to win the fight.  My guess is whatever plan Shogun has goes out the window in the second round and Machida wins via KO/TKO at the end of Round 2. 

E. Spencer Kyte: I'm not even going to waste my time over-analyzing this as some have or going with the trending upset pick that Mauricio Rua has become. All I really have to say is this: Lyoto Machida is 15-0, is the least hit fighter in the history of the UFC, lands 65% of his strikes and has rattled off wins over Sokoudjou, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans.
 
Shogun struggled with an old and out-of-shape Mark Coleman. Yes, he was coming back off an injury and looked good against Chuck Liddell, but looking good against Chuck Liddell is a far cry from defeating the undefeated light heavyweight champ.
 
Gimme Machida via TKO Round 2.

Zak Woods: No one, and I mean no one in the MMA media is giving Shogun much of a chance. Usually this is a recipe for something crazy to happy, Forrest Griffin or Matt Serra anyone? Still, Machida is so elusive (almost as annoying as when people say that Brett Favre is "just having fun out there") and so unorthodox is there really any way Rua can beat him? I can't see how "Shogun" wins this fight other than some cray come from behind triangle choke like Tito Ortiz almost pulled off. I guess this means we will all have to prepare our ritualistic sacrifices to the alter of Machida-karate. Machida via TKO Round 2.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Ben Rothwell (30-6) vs. Cain Velasquez (6-0)

E. Spencer Kyte: Cain Velasquez falls into the same category as Anthony Johnson for me; he's going to be terrific, possibly a champion, but not quite yet.
 
Yes, he beat Cheick Kongo and survived a couple shots that stunned him. But aside from Cheick Kongo, he hasn't been in the cage with anyone of consequence, with all due apologies to Jake O'Brien. Rothwell, on the other hand, has faced a handful of familiar names mixing time between Affliction, the IFL and various regional promotions. Wins over "Big Country" Nelson. Ricco Rodriguez and Krzysztof Soszynski accompany losses against Andrei Arlovski, Tim Sylvia, and Mike Whitehead.
 
While they're not the upper echelon of heavyweight challengers, they're bigger and better than the six opponents Velasquez has faced thus far. Gimme Rothwell by TKO in Round 2.

Nick Becker: In my upset pick of the night, I'm going with Rothwell to beat Velasquez in a fight that will have the crowd booing so much you'd think they were at a Clipper game.  I see Velasquez tirelessly working for the takedown against the larger Rothwell, getting it and then not doing much when he's on top.  Rothwell will be able to win the (few) standing exchanges that take place in between Velasquez takedowns and clinching against the cage.  Through a combination of ground sweeps, position, strikes landed and horrible judging, the winner will be Rothwell by Split Decision. 

Zach Krantz: I really, really want to pick Rothwell.  He will be the toughest test for Velasquez so far and he can definitely pack a punch.  However, Kongo is a better striker than Rothwell even if he is smaller and hit Cain right on the button.  Cain may have gone down, but he won that fight.  When compared to Rothwell, Velasquez is just a far superior athlete and wrestler.  I think he plays this fight smart and using takedowns and top position to control the fight.  This fight might be a first round KO, but I am going to go Velasquez vis Unanimous Decision. 

Zak Woods: For all the criticism that Velasquez took after his victory over Cheick Kongo he is still one of the brightest prospects in the UFC heavyweight division, which is saying something considering he is in everyone's top-ten list for the division. Velasquez will take Rothwell down and beat him on the ground. It won't be pretty but it will be decisive. Velasquez vis Unanimous Decision.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Josh Neer (25-8-1) vs. Gleison Tibau (29-6)

Zach Krantz: Neer complains about being dry humped for losses so the UFC decides to give him another wrestler who using top control.  I guees they think The Dentist is a stupid nickname.  Regardless if Neer thinks it is boring, he struggles with strong wrestlers.  His best chance of winning is taking advantage of Tibau's short camp and trying to open the fight up late.  However, I think at that point enough damage will have been done and Gleison Tibau wins via Unanimous Decision.

Zak Woods: Tibau was straight up robbed in his last fight against Melvin Guillard. I believe Gleison will be looking for a win in this fight no matter what and as a result will implement the Kurt Pellegrino game plan and attempt to out-wrestle Neer. Gleison via Unanimous Decision.

E. Spencer Kyte: Welcome to the requisite "Why is this on the televised broadcast?" fight of the night. The reason is that Sean Sherk was supposed to be facing Tibau, but an injury changed the plans and now "The Dentist" steps in to face the ATT product.
 
This fight doesn't look like a good fit for Neer, another Miletich product like Spencer Fisher. Kurt Pellegrino took him to the ground and dominated him for 15 minutes and the gifted submission artist Tibau might not need that long.
 
Gimme Tibau by submission in Round 2.

Nick Becker: Gleison Tibau loves taking people down.  Josh Neer hates when people take him down.  My prediction: By the end of the third round, Neer will be on his back and have an in-ring meltdown, cursing his opponent and flipping him off.  Although Neer has the ability to pull off a submission, Imma have to go with Tibau by Unanimous Decision.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Spencer Fisher (24-3) vs. Joe Stevenson (30-10)

Zak Woods: Joe Stevenson made some interesting comments about wanting to stand and trade with Spencer Fisher, which is causing some serious doubt in my mind. Still, I can't believe that someone would be so stupid to fight an opponent on their turf (in this case on your feet trading punches). I will go with my initial impressions and pick Stevenson via Unanimous Decision.

Zach Krantz: If Fisher had a better wrestling base he would have already fought for the title or would be in line for it.  He has won 4 of 6 and his two losses come from facing wrestlers who effectively used their (Edgar, Franca) skill set on him.  Too bad he got Joe Stevenson.  If Stevenson fights smart and uses his wrestling, like he did against Diaz, then this should be a good fight for the "Daddy." Joe is the smart pick, but I am gonna take a shot and hopefully Fisher has improved his wrestling defense and can take advantage of Joe's short reach, so I'll take Spencer Fisher winning via KO/TKO Round 3. 

E. Spencer Kyte: Say hello to the Fight of the Night. Just a hunch based on Spencer Fisher's involvement and Joe Stevenson's renewed commitment to being a complete fighter. Fisher is a dying breed; a Miletich Fighting System's fighter. Once the dominant camp in the business, MFS has fallen off, but Fisher remains a serious threat to anyone who stands before him.
 
Prior to his June win over Nathan Diaz, people were questioning whether Stevenson was in jeopardy of losing his place on the UFC roster. Now, another strong showing against "The King" could have him back amongst the upper echelon of lightweight contenders.
 
Stevenson should have learned he's a better wrestler than boxer and bring this fight to the ground. Gimme Stevenson via Unanimous Decision.

Nick Becker: On paper this looks to be a good scrap.  In reality, this match will be terribly boring.  For Fisher this fight will seem like déjà vu as it will be eerily reminiscent of his UFC 78 fight with Frank Edgar.  Stevenson hasn't been the same fighter since the BJ Penn fight but he still has enough to win this one with ease.  Stevenson via Unanimous Decision.    

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3)

Nick Becker: If Koscheck can double-KO Yoshida then Rumble should be able to triple-KO him.  I'm not gonna sleep on Zenko's submission skills, but I think Rumble's coming up in a major way.  Johnson by KO (of the Night) Round 1.

Zach Krantz: This fight is tailor made for Johnson.  Yoshida could pretzel Johnson on the mat, but his takedown offense will not get the fight there.  Props to Yoshida for heading to Greg jackson's camp, but Johnson is the better striker, has longer reach, and can keep the fight upright.  Johnson will win by knocking Yoshida's head into the third row in Round 1. 

Zak Woods: I am going to go against the grain with this pick. Johnson has been submitted by Rich Clementi and Yoshida has much, much better submission skills then Clementi. Plus Yoshida is now training with Team Jackson and as someone who is permanently drinking the Greg Jackson Kool-Aid I believe Yoshida takes this fight down and submits Johnson in Round 1. On the other hand Johnson may knock Yoshida's head back to feudal Japan.

E. Spencer Kyte: Everybody loves Anthony Johnson and I certainly do too, but not to the point that I think this is a cakewalk for him like some people.

Yoshida looked solid against War Machine and Brandon Wolff sandwiching getting stiffened by Josh Koscheck last December. Following that starching, he started training at Greg Jackson's. I like when guys start training at Greg Jackson's. While I think Johnson has a bright future thanks to his knockout power and terrific athleticism, I can never get passed the fact that he tapped out to Rich Clementi, a lightweight who no longer works for the UFC. Gimme Yoshida via Submission in Round 2.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Ryan Bader (10-0) vs. Eric Schafer (13-3-2)

Zach Krantz: Another fight where I want to take the underdog, but won't.  Schafer is a solid fighter with solid BJJ and improving striking.  However, Bader's power and wrestling to keep the fight standing will end this.  Ryan Bader wins via TKO in Round 2. 

Zak Woods: If Ryan Bader was fighting anyone other than Eric Schafer I would be inclined to pick against him due to his recent knee injury but Bader should be able to rely on his wrestling to defeat Schafer. Bader via Unanimous Decision.

Nick Becker: Bader has top-notch wrestling skills but Schafer's a crafty son of a gun.  Due to his long layoff and knee surgery, Bader will come out cautious, tentative and hesitant to engage.  After several minutes of inactivity, Bader will score a takedown but then get sloppy and overanxious leading to his eventual demise.  Schafer via Submission late in Round 1.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Nick Becker: I admit it, I'm an idiot.  For some strange reason, I picked this fight to end in a Submission of the Night on Cage Cast 36.  Wow, that must have been some good crack I was smoking.  I know this isn't Mortal Kombat 3, but still, I must pick Barry by Brutality Round 1.

Zak Woods: Hardonk lost to Justin McCully. JUSTIN McCULLY! For the sake of all that is holy in this world he will not win this fight. Patrick Barry via TKO Round 2.

Zach Krantz: This fight made the Spike card because it is a Kickboxing fight.  However, since both are strong strikers I expect someone will try to take the fight to the mat.  In the end though Hardonk size will be too much and Antoni will bully Barry around and win via Unanimous Decision. 

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Yushin Okami (22-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1)

Zach Krantz: Sonnen looked great against Miller, but this Okami we are talking about.  Okami wins via Unanimous decision. 

Nick Becker: Recent history lesson: On November 8, 2003, the Oklahoma Sooners were beating Texas A&M 49-0 at halftime, yet in the second half they continued to pass and score touchdowns, eventually winning 77-0.  If Yushin Okami ever wants to get a title shot against Anderson Silva he needs to perform the MMA equivalent of running up the score. 

As much as we MMA fans might want that to happen, it won't.  I foresee this bout playing out like a carbon copy of Okami's dominant, yet dull, decision victory over Jason Macdonald at UFC 77.  By the end of the 15^th minute, Spike execs will be giving each other hearty pats on the back and praising their foresight for not airing this clunker on TV.  Okami by Unanimous Decision.

Zak Woods: While there has been a lot of grumbling about the Okami-Sonnen fight being on the pre-prelim card the fact is this fight will most likely be a boring decision with a great deal of clinching by both fighters. If it does end up being good (read as: ends in spectacular fashion) it will probably make an appearance on Spike or the PPV card. In reality this is the best thing for the UFC, as they protect themselves from a potentially dull fight on their weak televised card. I for one have totally embraced Okami and his ability to grind out wins and believe he will do the same thing here. Okami via Unanimous decision.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Rob Kimmons (22-4) vs. Jorge Rivera (16-7)

Nick Becker: If there's one thing I love about Jorge Rivera it's that cool headdress he wears out to the Octagon during his entrances.  There's not much else I love about him.  Or his opponent.  Kimmons by Submission Round 2.

Zak Woods: I want to write a feel good hyperbole landed story about Jorge Rivera and his life. Come on Jorge! Rivera via Unanimous decision.

Zach Krantz: Rivera is a real nice story and I am happy to see him fighting again, but Rivera had trouble getting tied up in his youth let alone at the age of 37.  Kimmons wins via submission end of Round 1.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Razak Al-Hassan (7-1) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (7-2,1 NC)

Zach Krantz: Both are young fighters and a loss may mean the end of the UFC for now, but are in no ways the end of their careers.  Despite getting caught in an armbar against Cantwell, Hassan is supposed to be a top level ground fighter.  Expect Hassan to lose the first round on his feet, but he will get a hold of Kingsbury and Hassan wins via submission in Round 2.

Nick Becker: This one's my sleeper fight of the night.  Not in the literal sense though.  As mentioned in Cage Cast 36  (when I wasn't smoking crack), both guys are fighting for their UFC lives and I fully expect to see them let it all hang out.  FYI: During his TUF stint, Kingsbury got submitted by Ryan freaking Bader; while five of Al-Hassan's seven career wins are by submission.  Tap or snap baby, tap or snap.  Al-Hassan by Submission (of the Night) and Fight of the Night Round 2. 

Zak Woods: As Nick said, "Kingsbury got submitted by Ryan freaking Bader." All I needed to know. Al-Hassan via submission Round 1.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage

Stefan Struve (21-3) vs. Chase Gormley (6-0)

Nick Becker: I really like Struve as a long-term prospect and he impressed the hell out of me with his comeback win at UFC 99.  I don't know much about Gormley except that he must be breathing a sigh of relief that he won't be facing his original opponent, Ben Rothwell.  This will be Struve's third fight in the UFC, while Gormley might come down with that dreaded case of swine flu the Octagon jitters. Struve via TKO Round 3. 

Zach Krantz: Gormley was slated to fight Rothwell at the Affliction show and the UFC brought them both on.  Never seen Gormley fight, but I have seen Struve try and strike.  Gormley uses his wrestling to keep the fight standing and wins via KO in Round 1.

Zak Woods: Struve is young and European so UFC fans will be treated to more Stefan in our future. In Struve's last fight he had to pull off a come from behind victory over Denis Stojnic but I don't believe he will be able to repeat his last performance against Gromley who will use a lay-n-pray wrestling strategy to win this fight. Gromley via unanimous decision.

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage