Machida repeatedly landed counters like this one

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Hello Kiddies, looks like your old pal Nick drew the short straw and now has the unenviable task of writing an opinion piece defending the judge's call in awarding the decision victory to Lyoto Machida.  Well, things could always be worse; I could've been tasked with defending Michael Bisping's victory over Matt Hamill at UFC 75.

After re-watching the fight a second time, I came away with some observations that lend credence to the opinion that Machida won the fight.  All rounds, save for the final one, were very close and could have easily gone either way.  With that said, here are my thoughts on Rounds 1-4 and what Machida did that most likely influenced the judges to score those rounds in his favor.

Round 1:  Right off the bat, Machida lands four successive knees to Shogun's midsection while they're in the clinch and then follows that up with a left-right punch combo that barely misses.  The most significant blow of the entire round comes when Machida catches Shogun coming in with a vicious knee to the body when Shogun went for the takedown.  Astute viewers might recall that this was the same knee to the body that Machida used to drop Tito Ortiz at the end of the first round in their fight. 

Another thing to keep in mind is that Machida repeatedly stuffs Shogun's trip takedown attempts and utilizes over/under position to nullify Rua when he's pressed against the cage.  Machida is never in danger of being taken down by Rua, whom it was widely speculated would have to implement a strong ground game in order to come away with the victory.

Rounds 2-4 after the jump.

Round 2:  At the end of the first minute, Machida tags Rua with a couple of hard punches that backs Shogun up against the fence and then follows that up with a clean kick to the body.  Halfway through the round Machida catches Rua with another knee to the midsection as Shogun tries to close the distance.  Machida continues to fend off Shogun's takedown attempts, which have to be scoring him points with the judges.  Shogun and Machida both land solid kicks during the round but Machida lands another significant blow with another knee to the midsection.  Replays at the end of the round show Machida landing a nice counter left hand to Shogun's jaw when Shogun throws a hard kick. 

The deciding factor in these first two rounds has to be Machida's takedown defense.   

Round 3:  Rua lands a brutal body kick to start the round but doesn't follow it up.  Machida fires back with a stiff right hand followed by a body kick that is every bit as impressive as the one Shogun just threw.  Machida is displaying more Octagon control as he backs Rua up with that flurry.  Rua seems content to land just one hard shot at a time while Machida looks for immediate follow-ups.  Another takedown attempt by Shogun is stuffed by Machida.  Stiff left hand counter by Machida as Rua lands a kick.  With about a minute and half remaining, Machida buries another knee into Rua's midsection.  As the round expires, Machida puts a stamp on the round as he tees off on Shogun backing him against the fence and peppering him with punches, knees and kicks. 

At this point, it would be easy to see how Machida could be up three rounds to none on the judge's scorecards.  There's no doubt about the cumulative damage that Rua's kicks have done to Machida, the problem is that Rua hasn't been following them up with any significant offense.   

Round 4:  Not very much action taking place for the first couple minutes until Machida lands a nice head kick.  After a slip by Machida, Shogun tries to capitalize and take him down but once again is not able to.  Machida counters a leg kick by firing three consecutive punches at Shogun.  This round is a close one, closer than the first two IMO; but still, the most significant moments were the head kick by Lyoto, as well as the stuffed takedown.

If this bout would have been scored Pride-style, there's little doubt Shogun would have taken the decision and the belt.  Seeing as how it was judged round-by-round, Lyoto won because he landed the most significant moments of Rounds 1-4.  The cumulative damage done to Machida was obviously greater, but when Shogun landed kicks he didn't follow them up.  When you factor in Machida's excellent takedown defense, it becomes easier to see how the judge's scored this one in Lyoto's favor.  Machida was never in any danger of being taken down as he shrugged off every one of Shogun's takedown attempts. 

Although I thought this fight was much closer the second time I watched it, the reality is that Machida did enough to win each of the first four rounds.  Whether a rematch takes place at UFC 108 or a later card, we can only hope that it doesn't go to the judge's scorecards since scoring is so subjective. 

In conclusion, I can only echo Kevin Iole's thoughts that Shogun's corner did him harm by not installing a greater sense of urgency in him to finish the fight.  The bottom line is if Shogun had shown the killer instinct that he displayed against Rampage Jackson back in Pride, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now.