I think that is Rogerio. They're twins, give me a break.

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Luiz "Banha" Cane 10-1-1 (3-1 UFC) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 17-3 (0-0 UFC):

The Story So Far:

Luiz Arthur Cane went 6-0-1 on the Brazilian circuit and picked up a win at an Art of War show in Dallas before he got the call from the UFC.  An illegal knee to James Irvin lost Cane his first fight in the UFC, but he has rattled off three in a row since then.  With his only loss being a DQ and him being 3-0 in the UFC outside of the DQ many see Cane as a future if not present title contender.  Despite four fights in the UFC he has not faced incredibly tough competition.  Between Sokoudjou, Cantwell, and Lambert there is no marquee win on Cane's record.  This fight is by far toughest test of Cane's career therefore providing him with an enormous opportunity to make a statement.

Fun fact, Rogerio is Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's brother.  Wait, you already knew that, shocker.  Guess what, there is more.  Rogerio is also a pride veteran with a 17-3 record who has beaten Kazushi Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem (twice), Dan Henderson, and Vladimir Matyushenko.  Not everything is cherry as he was also a part of one the biggest upsets in MMA history.  He lost to Sokoudjou, who was 2-1 at the time, by way of KO only 23 seconds into the fight.  He is not provided the luxury of a welcoming gift as he will fight Cane in his first UFC fight.  One reason Rogerio never got the main stream appeal was his apparent lack of crushing power or dominating submission game.  At one point in his career he won 6 of 7 fights by decision and he did not earn a KO/TKO finish for the first 5 years of his MMA career.  This has changed recently with Nogueira finishing his opponent in his 6 of his last 7 fights.  Nogueira is also a medal winning boxer having taken Gold at the 2006 South American Games and Bronze at the 2007 Pan American Games for Brazil. 

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Conventional Wisdom:

Nogueira is the favorite in this fight and with good reason.  Despite Cane's BJJ black belt (who doesn't have one these days) he is known as a striker.  Nine of his ten wins have come via strikes due to his relentless style, close quarter combat, and strong chin.  Most people give him the advantage on the feet, but Rogerio's boxing makes that a small advantage. 

Rogerio has black belt of his own, but unlike Cane he has shown strong mat work during fights.  Rogerio is one of few people to submit Dan Henderson and Cane's wrestling has yet to be tested.  With a slight disadvantage on the feet (arguably) and a clear advantage on the ground, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is -200 favorite going into Saturday.

WKR Analysis:

Nothing about conventional wisdom is incorrect, but just because we have not seen Cane's ground game does mean it does not exist.  Cane has not fought against the best of the best, but he does train with them at ATT.  The toughest thing to overcome in sports is ignorance.  It is difficult to contend against something you have never seen.  Cane has 20 fights worth of tape over eight years to get an idea of how Nogueira will come out, but Nogueira has for the most part only seen Cane's stand up (not sure if they have a relationship from Brazil).  Cane's most impressive win was his win over Cantwell.  He could not knock him out, but he showed good aggressive striking coupled with a solid chin.  I can see Nogueria looking to stand and trade in his first UFC fight and paying the price for it.  Nogueira is the deserving favorite and probably will win this fight, but look for a potential upset if Nogueira wants to showcase his boxing.

Fun Fact:

Bahna means large or fat in Portuguese.  Think about that.  What if instead of Suga Rashad Evans we had Fat Rashad Evans. 

Dan Henderson has only been submitted three times in his career and all three men to do it are part of the Black House Camp.  The two Nogueira brothers and Anderson Silva.