Shields vs. Miller

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Jake Shields (23-4, 1-0 Strikeforce) vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller (22-6):

The Story So Far

Shields and Miller are both a rarity in that they have found success and/or fame in MMA outside of the UFC.  Miller did fight once in the UFC, a decision loss to GSP, but his fame and success have come outside of the promotion.  Shields, a black belt in BJJ under Cesar Gracie, was a top 5 welterweight until he moved up to middleweight.  Now he is ranked just outside the top ten due to only having fought once at middleweight (actually a catchweight of 182), but winning the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship over Miller will help him vault up the rankings.  Shields has won 12 straight fights with wins over Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Paul Daley, and most recently Robbie Lawler.  Jake has definitely proven himself outside of the big promotion and is a key commodity for Strikeforce.  However, Jason Miller, a man Shields has trained with, is no joke.

Miller has recently gained experience fighting overseas for Strikeforce's friend DREAM.  Miller is a solid fighter, but lacks the marquee wins Shields has (he beat a young weaker Lawler).  Miller instead has gained popularity in Japan with his detailed and flamboyant entrances and in the United States through Bully Beatdown on MTV.  Miller is definitely a personality and his antics (annoying) and filterless opinions (refreshing) are turning him into a promotable fighter.  He is a man that would be easy to promote and probably already has a larger fan base than Shields even though he does not have the MMA resume of Jake.

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Conventional Wisdom

Shields has always been a strong wrestler and grappler, but he started his career with a blanket offense attack.  However, he has recently turned up his aggression on the mat and adapted his jiu-jitsu to MMA as good as if not better than everyone else.  He has finished his last eight opponents and six were by way of submission.  He is a comfortable favorite coming into the fight, but not a lock according to the odds maker.

This is because Miller has shown to be a tough despite not dominating opponent.  Neither GSP nor Jacare were able to finish Mayhem and Miller is a confident grappler in his own right.  He has only been finished twice in his career and he has won 13 of his 22 wins by way of submission.  The difficulty to finish him, Shields tendency to slow down later in fights, and this being a five round title fight have turned Miller into the bandwagon underdog on Saturday night.

However, I would be implying Mayhem is the favorite if I left it that.  The truth is that Shields is the favorite and most people expect him to come out on top.

WKR Analysis

Conventional wisdom is correct because Shields is the favorite, but they are giving Mayhem too much credit in this fight.  Miller is a solid fighter and is a legit test for any competition, but this is a horrible match up for him.  Even in fights with larger underdogs (Rogers vs. Fedor) the underdog has some stylistic advantage that they need to desperately take advantage of.  The problem here is that Shields and Miller share very similar styles, but Shields is simply a better version.  I know Mayhem is durable, but when your strategy is to tire the opponent by surviving rounds you are not in good shape.  While Jacare may have better BJJ credentials than Shields I think Shields applies his submissions to MMA better because he can more effectively strike on the mat.  Expect a close first round before Shields is able to work the second round on the mat and finish with a submission.

Fun Fact

Jake Shields lost to Phillip Miller in his fifth professional fight.  Miller was a MMA fighter who went 16-0 in his career and 2-0 in the UFC.  He has not fought since 2003.