UFC 107 Preview: Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida

Kenny Florian (11-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (25-10, 5-4 UFC):

The Story So Far:

Kenny Florian is one of the top lightweights in the world and continues to improve with every fight.  Florian started his UFC career losing to Diego Sanchez (they fought at Middleweight) before rattling off three straight wins to earn a title shot.  However, he came up short, losing to Sean Sherk via unanimous decision.  He responded the same way he did after the Sanchez loss.  Florian then won 6 straight fights against solid competition to earn a title shot against the incumbent title holder B.J. Penn.  I know there is no moral victory in sports, but Florian was able to take B.J. into the fourth round which is something no lightweight has done since Jens Pulver in 2002.  The evolution of Kenny Florian was witnessed by everyone as he was a noticeably improved fighter every time he stepped into the cage.  Kenny has recently changed camps and is training with Firas Zahabi so we will see if there is another evolution in Kenny's game.  Zahabi's number one fighter is a guy who goes by the moniker GSP, so Kenny has some pretty solid training partners.  Now he will look to start over against a very game opponent in Clay Guida.

Clay Guida is one of if not the most likable fighter in the UFC.  Guida has won Fight of the Night honors three times in the UFC including his last two fights.  He is mister excitement and a real life Tasmanian devil.  He also uses the moniker the carpenter and always thanks the Chicago Carpenters Union to show support for a group he used to belong to.  He is the every man who works harder, with more energy to overcome a reduced skill set.  The Carpenter has won three of his last four fights with his sole loss coming against Diego Sanchez; the man fighting for the Lightweight Title.  Guida recently headed out to train with the famous, deservedly so, Greg Jackson at his camp in New Mexico.  We will see if a top notch camp can improve Guida's technical ability.

SBN coverage of UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez

Conventional Wisdom:

This fight is freaking awesome and has so many angles to it.  Kenny Florian is a man who finishes fighters.  He has finished his opponent in 10 of his 11 victories.  Clay Guida is a man who cannot be finished.  Only once in his four UFC loses has he been finished.  Both have good gas tanks and can go the distance.  Guida's best ability is his wrestling and Kenny's biggest weakness is his wrestling.  Guida has weak striking defense and Kenny's Muay Thai is an excellent weapon.  These two provide a lot of excitement and potential match ups to exploit.

However, the general consensus is that Florian will walk away the victor.  Clay is a very fun fighter to watch, but his actual ability has never truly been there.  Florian is absolutely a more well rounded fighter and is excellent both on the mat and on his feet.  Even if Guida can take the fight to the mat he has had trouble doing damage from the top and Florian is a solid BJJ practitioner.  While Guida may be improved working with Jackson, Florian's takedown defense has to be better working in the same camp as GSP.  Outside an intense decision victory from Guida, the conventional wisdom is to go with Florian.

WKR Analysis:

Some people think Guida can impose his strength on Kenny and walk away with a decision.  This is a definitely a possibility, but do not expect it to happen.  An ability that has been huge for Florian throughout his career is the ability to improve every fight and learn from his mistakes.  He is simply a better fighter than Guida and has an advantage on the feet and on the mat.  Guida will have a very difficult time finishing Kenny and really his only chance for victory is grinding out a decision.  Expect Guida's toughness to help him persevere before being submitted late in the fight.

Fun Fact:

The real intriguing part of this fight is between their respective corners.  Greg Jackson and Firas are good friends.  Both their camps, along with High Altitude MMA (Denver, Nate Marquardt), are more or less satellite camps of each other.  Their fighters train together, help each other prepare for fights, and visit each other's camps before the fights.  However, this time they will be opposite each other as they both took on two new fighters who are facing each other.  BloodyElbow recently brought this up.