UFC 107 Postmortem: Where do they go from here?
by Zak Woods on Dec 14, 2009 10:15 AM EST
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B.J. Penn: There is a reason why they call him "The Prodigy" - Dana White saids that Penn is one fight away from cleaning out the 155lbs. division so who is next, Frankie Edgar or Gray Maynard? WKR believes it should be Gray, who holds a win over Frankie, but we will have to wait and see. After that title defense --probably in Hawaii-- the question will inevitably turn to whether Penn will move up to 170lbs. (wait, that talk has already started) and whether he will have to abdicate the title to do.
There is another possibility though. B.J. Penn's trainer, Rudy Valentino, has called out Dream lightweight champion, and #2 ranked lightweight, Shinya Aoki. This raises some interesting questions about possible opponents outside of the UFC. Penn is clearly at his best at lightweight and there are several top-ten lightweights outside of the UFC which could create some interesting fights. Obviously there is the aforementioned Aoki but there is also #3 ranked Eddie Alvarez, Tatsuya Kawajiri, Joachim Hansen and dare WKR say Gilbert Melendez and Josh Thomson. Realistically it is hard to imagine a scenario where the UFC secures the rights to these fighters or a scenario where Penn leaves the UFC to fight them --the money is just better in the UFC-- so this is probably just a pipe dream but an interesting discussion nonetheless.
Diego Sanchez: "NO! NO! NO!" - There is no way to sugar code this, Diego got his ass kicked. The beating was so thorough that one would expect that Diego would have to go to the back of the lightweight line. Tyson Griffin and Kurt Pellegrino are two fighters that are currently injured, which could compete with Sanchez once he has recovered from his wounds. There is also the nostalgic option of having Diego fight his fellow TUF season one alum, Kenny Florian (more on this below). A dark horse possibility is a move back to welterweight. Yeah, WKR doesn't like that idea much either.
Frank Mir: "In every sentence I say a noun, a verb and Brock Lesnar" - Wow, Frank Mir pwned (yes, WKR went there) Cheick Kongo. This result was never really in doubt but it was still impressive to see Mir knock Kongo down then submit him in just over a minute. Some believe that this victory has solidified Mir's position as the #3 heavyweight in the world. With Brock Lesnar out, possibly indefinitely, it makes the option of an interim title fight with Shane Carwin a tempting solution. If Lesnar is able to go this summer then look for Frank Mir to fight the winner of Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Velasquez in the fall.
Cheick Kongo: "If I turn my back no one will notice the lack of grappling skills" - This was a devastating loss for Kongo who is now firmly entrenched in a gatekeeper roll. Outside of Mirko Filipovic Kongo has been unable to beat a top 15 heavyweight for his entire UFC career. The UFC could throw a Pat Barry type at Cheick and allow him to build himself back up or they could go in a different direction and give Kongo and up-and-coming prospect likeTodd Duffee.
SBN coverage of UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez
Kenny Florian: "Hey, I am still really good" - Florian's second round submission over Guida showed why he is a top-five lightweight but with Edgar and Maynard being groomed for a title shots plus Florian's recent victory over Joe Stevenson makes the options at the top of the division slim. WKR thinks the UFC should cash in on a TUF season one rematch between Florian and Sanchez. While it may be a step back for Florian the other option is wait for Sean Sherk (who is fighting at UFC 108) or Tyson Griffin (who is injured).
Clay Guida: "Crimson showers are my new favorite thing" - If Clay ever had a prayer of contending for a title it went up in smoke on Saturday night. Guida is a popular and entertaining fighter but he is 5-5 in the UFC. That's the kind of shit that got Rich Clementi and Jason MacDonald cut. Guida will probably have to go back to "Fight Night" cards and battle it out with the bottom of the division. If the UFC is looking to test TUF 8 champion, Efrain Escudero, Guida would be a good match-up. Journeyman Aaron Riley would also make an exciting fight.
Jon Fitch: "Its a very common problem that happens to most guys" - After the Mike Pierce fight it appeats that Jon Fitch may have regressed. While some will point to the fact that Fitch's last six fights have all gone to decision --one a loss to Georges St. Pierre-- that isn't necessarily a horrible thing. The problem is more that Fitch appears to be struggling with less than stellar competition. Since Mike Pierce wasn't the UFC's first or second choice to fight Fitch look for the UFC to match him against either Thiago Alves or Ricardo Almeida.
Stefan Struve: "I am still growing, literally" - Struve defeated Paul Buentello but there was some controversy. Even if the judges got it right the fight was still close and that has some people worried about the Danish heavyweight. Relax people. Struve is just 21 and is growing both as a fighter and physically. He clearly needs some more time to develop and the UFC may take a Roger Huerta approach with him. Antoni Hardonk would be a good fighter with questionable ground skills for Struve to fight. Unfortunately, Struve's stand-up leaves something to be desired so perhaps the UFC will go with Mostapah Al-Turk on a European card.
Paul Buentello: "I miss AKA" - This was Buentello's return to the UFC so an immediate loss hurts him. Luckily for Paul the UFC is starting an AARP division so there is still some hope. Buentello could fight the loser of Couture vs. Coleman or Vladimir Matyushenko. Yes, WKR realizes these three fighters are all fighting at light heavyweight now but they could all fight at heavyweight and are fellow senior citizens.
Alan Belcher: "Johhny Cash tattoos are awesome!" - Alan Belcher may have called for a title shot but he is nowhere near ready to fight Anderson Silva or any of the top five of the division. Alan gets punched in the face way too easily to be a serious contender (it would be Silva vs. Leben part deux). Belcher needs another opponent to try and work out some of the kinks. Any fighter in the middle tier of the division would do. If the UFC is serious about building Belcher up then they might give him the opportunity to avenge a loss to Kendall Grove.
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good write up
an aoki/penn fight would be amazing. too bad it will not happen as it appears aoki U.S. debut will be with strikeforce. Sans grappling pants
"That's an Awfully Big Mustache"-Frank Drebin
watchkalibrun.com
…and Aoki doesn’t seem very fond of the UFC in general. But holee shit it would be awesome to see it happen.
"Donuts don't wear alligator shoes" - Black Dynamite
yeah I think that or Alvarez would be the best fight for Penn but its not going to happen
watchkalibrun.com
Alvarez would get killed by Penn in my opinion. He does not have the wrestling to put him to the ground, his reach is tiny and does not have nearly the stand-up skills required to be even competitive with Penn. Penn would pepper him from the outside for 3 rounds before his face would look like Sanchez’s on Saturday.
Aoki would probably try to use his reach to jab at Penn and then flop on his back to try to catch BJ’s leg once BJ engages. Then probably probably knocked out on the ground or choked out by a much better top control game by BJ. Or Penn would just let him up and pepper him some more.
Honestly, I think somebody like Imanari would have a better chance with BJ than those two. Just because he might get lucky and catch a leg real fast.
this conversation we are having is interesting because it highlights the fact that there are probably more interesting fights outside of the UFC for Penn right now.
Penn vs. Aoki in Japan with grappling pants would be interesting especially if they use Pride rules
watchkalibrun.com
The thing right now is that nobody does any one thing better than BJ does all of them. There is a blueprint to beat Penn, GSP showed it, but who in the Lightweights has to tools to do that? It seems like the only way to get BJ down is: Fake a lot, have decent striking and striking defense and be able to knee tap him in the middle of the cage (not double-leg him like Rogan said on the broadcast), and ground and pound really carefully.
One interesting part is the effect a ring would have on Penn’s takedown defense… Without having the cage to hold him up, would he get sucked in a double leg on the ropes with his balance a little off… Could you drag him to the ground a little easier with a single?
Clay Guida – “I CAN’T BELIEVE HOW LONG IT TAKES TO TAKE MY GOD DAMNED SHOES OFF BEFORE I ENTER THE RING!”
I was laughing my ass off as he struggled with his shoes and his emotional jams be kickin’
"Donuts don't wear alligator shoes" - Black Dynamite
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