Early UFC 106 PPV Numbers are Bad
by Zak Woods on Dec 3, 2009 12:53 PM EST
in Analysis
5 comments
Dave Meltzer has the early pay-per view estimates for UFC 106 and they are not pretty (via MMA Payout)
The first week cable estimate on UFC 106 was 330,000, which is even lower than earliest projections we had. UFC 104 with Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Shogun Rua came in at 450,000 in a cable estimate and 460,000 in a trending estimate. Keep in mind the general rule of thumb by nature of how numbers are reported in the U.S. is that the final number since most UFC buys are in the U.S. will wind up 10-15% above these original numbers, so it's likely Machida-Rua ends up at 500,000, which isn't bad, and UFC 106 winds up 360,000 to 375,000, which for that fight is a gigantic disappointment. Trending numbers right now are indicating about a 27% drop from 104.
Some observers were beginning to believe that 400,000 to 450,000 PPV buys was the new bottom of the barrel for the UFC. If these early number are right then it shows that is not the case and will lend fodder for those that believe that the UFC has peaked in terms of U.S. popularity.
UFC 106 didn't just have bad pay-per view returns. The show was plagued by comped tickets and an empty stadium. All told approximately 37% of UFC 106's tickets were comped and 46% of the ideal gate value (if the event had been sold out) was comped.
So what went wrong?
It was probably a compilation of multiple factors that lead to UFC 106 being a "gigantic disappointment". Obviously the Lesnar-Carwin main even being canceled is at the top of the list then there is the issue of their replacement's purported popularity. Tito Ortiz was coming off an eighteen month layoff while Forrest Griffin was embarrassed at UFC 101, which could have affected their standing with casual fans. Not to mention the fact that November was a month loaded with MMA events including UFC 105, which was shown on Spike for free the week before. Finally there is the Las Vegas economy, which is still in the dumps.
All of these factors could have combined to make a perfect storm for a bad event for the UFC.
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IMO, overexposure is what’s killing the brand. They need to go back to 1 PPV every 4 or 6 weeks and fill in with the free shows every 2 or 3 months. Stack the PPV cards with 3 legit Main Event/ Co main event fights to cover your ass in case of injuries or illness. Put your TUF contestants and up and commers on the Spike shows to get them some exposure and to justify us paying to watch them on future PPV cards. Stop making the some of the overseas cards PPV and just show them on Spike.
People have to be more selective in terms of disposable income…..if that’s even a term that can be used anymore. It’s hard for me to justify dropping $50 on a Tito vs. Forrest main event. BJ Penn is one of my favorite fighters, but I’m not even sure the UFC 107 lineup is going to convince me to drop $50.
This downturn in business will be a nice test for Zuffa to see if they do anything to increase their profit.
the fights were actually good. it's the tuf show that is bringing ufc down
last nights 2 hour episode. 1 hour and 30 minutes of commercial’s, previews and meaningless smack between rashad and rampage. a little less than 30 minutes of fighting. tuf 11 better have a new trick b/c this zhit did not work
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Dec 3, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions
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