WKR gambling advice for TUFN 17

I am no Charles Barkley, and I don't mean that along the lines that I get DUI's while trying to get some nookie. Nor do I mean that I blow $500,000 on a black jack hand. But I do enjoy to partake in a little MMA gambling. Here is WKR's gambling advice for The Ultimate Fight Night 17. 

Stay away from Joe Lauzon (-185) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+155). The odds here are really close and I know what you are thinking. Didn't Stephens take this fight on short notice, so shouldn't I bet the bank on Lauzon. That's a really good point and if you feel that confident in Lauzo then make the bet, but here's my problem with it. Lauzon was preparing for Franca not Stephens, he is going into this fight on short notice too. With it being only three rounds and Stephens being a strong opponent I have little confidence in placing a bet here. Personally, I stay away from fights where any fighter has taken the bout on short notice. 

Kurt Pelligrino (-165) over Rob Emerson (+135). I am never going to bet on someone who was in a suburban gang, sorry Emerson. Pelligrino should take this fight with superior wrestling and it pays off nicely for a favorite, at -165.

Mac Danzig (-115) over Josh Neer (-115). These odds indicate that Vegas thinks this fight is a coin flip and if the odds are essentially a coin flip I will take the guy who didn't recently have a DUI. Neer's legal trouble means that his mind could be all over the place coming into this fight. How many times have we seen athletes mentally not show up for a fight due to problems at home?

Rich Clementi (-130) over Gleison Tibau (even). Both fighter's are coming off losses and both fighter's have a tendency to go the distance. This fight will be really close and is a great candidate for a split decision. But I think Clementi will pull off his patented D-X victory, a la Melvin Guillard. 

Last fight 3-0