Why Keith Jardine will defeat Quinton Jackson

The fight between Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson and Keith Jardine, has been described as a stop gap main event for the UFC. Many observers believe that Jackson will easily win and gain a title shot --a title shot that some feel he has already earned-- against the current light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans.

Not if Keith Jardine has anything to say about it.

Keith Jardine has an uncanny ability to destroy the UFC's best laid plans. Jardine knocked out Forrest Griffin after Forrest had an impressive, though losing effort, against Tito Ortiz. After that victory, the UFC decided to promote Jardine by giving him a fight against UFC newcomer Houston Alexander. That fight lasted a minute, as Alexander knocked out 'the Dean of Mean'. Next up for Keith was a bout with Chuck Liddell. This fight was suppose to set up the blockbuster match between the recently signed Pride veteran Wanderlei Silva. Jardine outfought Liddell and won a decision victory. While the UFC went ahead with the Liddell-Silva fight, the Jardine result did take some of the luster out of the match.

Can Jardine fit the role of usurper yet again?

It is quite conceivable that Jardine will win and far beyond the adage of 'a puncher's chance.'

Besides having the best MMA tactician, Greg Jackson, in his corner, Jardine possesses a powerful tool, one that Rampage has shown he is susceptible to, the leg kick.

Jackson's loss to Forrest Griffin can be directly traced to Griffin's effective use of leg kicks. Griffin used it to chop down Jackson by scoring points, causing damage and taking away cardio (for a more in depth analysis go here). Throughout that fight Jackson failed to counter or even defend the constant barrage of leg kicks.

Jardine will most likely use a similar approach in his bout with Jackson this Saturday. After all 'the Dean of Mean' used an identical approach in his fight with Chuck Liddell. Liddell also failed to counter the leg kicks, which in the end cost him the fight.

The Rashad Evans Forrest Griffin bout showed us what the hard counter is to a fighter that constantly uses leg kicks. In the third round Evans  finally caught a leg kick and used it to secure a takedown. Evans proceeded to win the fight with devastating ground and pound.

If Rampage does not take note of this trend and take the fight to the ground after a leg kick then he could quickly find himself behind in the judges card with only one round to win the fight.