WKR Gambling advice UFC 99

Well well well. I start bemoaning my ability to pick winners and look what happens, a perfect 5-0 last weekend. I even hit on Brett Rogers (just ignore the part where I said there is no chance he would win). You know what that means right? I am going to get everyone of these wrong. 

UFC 99 could be a gamblers dream. The preliminary card is riddled with -500 odds for the favorites so we are going to avoid those fights, where as the televised card is loaded with four fights at identical odds of -200 +160. That means good payoffs on underdogs and not horrible returns on the favorites. If I were a gambling man --which if you are ready this column you should assume I am -- I would be tempted to take all the +160's and parlay they shit out of them. If a parlay is a little too hardcore for you then just go ahead and let it ride on all four of the +160's. I mean betting on Dan Hardy, Caol Uno, Cheick Kongo and Ben Saunders isn't that bad. 

Now on to the picks!

Wanderlei Silva (+110) over Rich Franklin (-140)
Wanderlei has some serious chin issues right now. He is 1-4 in his past five fights losing three by knockout. That is a troubling trend and should give any gambler pause. However the argument in favor of Silva is that he utilizes the same Thai clinch that Rich Franklin proved so susceptible to in his fights with Anderson Silva. Franklin became a dominant middleweight by bullying fighters in the clinch something he can't do against good Muy Thai fighters like Wanderlei. All that being said I am not totally sold on Silva. His one victory was a flash-knockout but he did show a solid chin against Chuck Liddell who is a harder puncher than Franklin. In the end Wanderlei and his underdog odds are good enough for me. 

Dan Hardy (+160) over Marcus Davis (-200)
Marcus Davis may be 8-2 in the UFC but his fight with Mike Swick made Davis look undersized for the top of the welterweight division. This analysis hinges on the belief that Dan Hardy is in fact a legitimate welterweight. While I am not 100% sure of Hardy's abilities he does fit the athletic profile of Swick. With Davis' scar tissue and Hardy's heavy hands I think Hardy pulls off the upset. 

Spencer Fisher (-200) over Caol Uno (+160)
There are two facts about this fight that make me feel good about Spencer Fisher. First Fisher has left Miletich Fighting Systems. Their fighters are clearly behind the times so Spencer should be sharper than he was in the past. Second, Uno is making his return to the UFC and is coming off a ten-month layoff. There will be just enough cage-rust to allow Fisher to ruin Caol's return. 

Mostapha Al Turk (+350) over Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (-550)
I guess this could be consider the 'press my luck' bet. I should just get up and walk away from the black jack table instead of splitting those 7's. But I feel lucky. Al Turk is not exactly the greatest heavyweight around but then again Gabriel Gonzaga wasn't that great either. Cro Cop's struggles with the UFC, the cage and elbows, is well documented. This pick is for those that believe Cro Cop hasn't changed and is still susceptible to a hard working heavyweight. Now Al Turk may simply not have the skills to beat the Croatian fighter but the pay off makes the risk of a small bet worth it. 

UFC 99: The Comeback coverage, Last weekend WKR went 5-0