UFC 99 Preview: Marcus Davis vs. Dan Hardy

Whenever I find myself getting excited for a fight I always try to base that off of the style of the two fighters.  I never want to get lost in the pre-fight hype because that does not dictate how the fight will go.  In a sport like MMA where the ultimate goal is to destroy your opponent a grudge match does not do much for me.  There is nothing extra the fighters can do to change the fight simply because they hate each other.  If they do engage in some extracurricular activities it is dangerous and detrimental to the sport; a al Babalu/Heath.  Therefore when I tell you I am very excited for the Davis/Hardy fight you know it is because the fight itself will be exciting.  I also think it is Marcus Davis's fight to lose and he will leave the cage with another victory on European soil.  Fight breakdown after the jump.

Marcus Davis has the advantage in every skill category.  He is better on his feet and on the ground.  However, Hardy has the advantage in the intangibles.  He is younger, more athletic, and maybe a little quicker.  These will not be enough for Hardy because Davis's superior skill set and experience will be the difference.

Marcus Davis is a better striker.  He is a former professional boxer with good accuracy, combinations, and most importantly in MMA, good head movement.  This is something MMA fighters struggle to learn, but the knowledge/discipline to keep your head bouncing is a huge factor.  This is amplified against a brawler like Hardy who is looking for the big shot.  Brawlers can cause major problems for boxers who are new to MMA and not used to the attack or MMA fighters who are training for boxing (Rogers/Arlovski).  Arlovski even admitted he was too focused on boxing and tried to use traditional boxing too much in MMA.  Zak recently mentioned Andrei's realization from his official website.

I focused too much on boxing and not enough on the wrestling and jiu-jitsu. It wasn't right. It's another thing I have to think about. MMA is not boxing. I have to change something. I don't understand this question about my chin. When you open your face for four or five punches it doesn't matter your chin, you will get KOed. Rogers was great, he did what he did. I took the fight and I got my ass kicked, it's that simple. It's embarrassing, but what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I have to move on. I'm definitely going to come back.  

This is not a problem Davis will have.  He is an MMA fighter who can use his previous boxing experience to avoid big shots and counter Hardy's attacks.  While brawlers might frustrate MMA fighters transitioning into boxing or new boxers trying MMA their poison is experienced MMA fighters with a boxing background.  If the fight stays standing (which it probably will) watch Davis pick apart the longer Hardy by slipping punches and countering.

If I wrote this post yesterday I would have proclaimed how Davis would submit Hardy on Saturday. Half of Hardy's losses are by submission and only 14% of his wins are by ground submission (not counting submission by strikes).  Davis has shown serious improvement on the ground and the ability to pull off submissions while on the defense (Paul Taylor fight).  However, the more I thought about it I do not see the fight going to the ground.  The Taylor fight went to the ground because Davis got rocked and his last fight with Lytle was all standing.  I am not sure what takedown offense Davis has, but if the fight can make it to the ground Davis can pull out an easy victory.  This would be my game plan because it eliminates the one punch KO which Hardy is capable of.

Despite having a better stand up and ground game it is Davis's head that could lose him the fight.  Davis is a very emotional fighter and Hardy appears to be a master at getting in the head of his opponent (must be an English thing with Bisping using the same methods).  If Davis comes out looking to kill Hardy and fights reckless he will lose.  Going shot for shot with a power puncher is a bad decision.  If Davis keeps his head he wins, if not he loses.  Having DellaGrotte in his corner will help and I think Davis keeps focus and raises his hand at the end.

I give Davis an 80% chance of winning with a 40% chance of KO/TKO, a 25% chance for decision, and a 15% chance with submission victory.  I give Hardy a 20% chance to win with a 15% chance of KO/TKO and a 5% chance of decision.  I know many people will think 80% is way too high for Davis, but I really think he is the superior fighter and I am not sold on Hardy because of a KO of Rory Markham and a split decision over Gono (who went 1-2 in the UFC and I know his other loss was to Fitch).  I also want to say there will be more than a 30% chance for decision final since neither fighter has ever been KO'd before (I think), but for some reason I just do not see it happening.

Let me know, I am crazy giving Davis this big a chance.  Also, what do we think of the chance percentages; interesting or dumbest thing ever, I have yet to decide.  Finally, when Dan Hardy destroys Marcus Davis I open myself up to all "I told you so" you could possibly say.