Joe Stevenson (29-10, 6-4 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (10-3, 5-1 UFC)

Joe Rogan has described this fight as a 'must win' for Joe "Daddy" Stevenson. Stevenson is 1-3 in his past four fights with losses to B.J. Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. In reality those three fighters represent three of the top four lightweights in the UFC. Thus many observers feel that Stevenson's recent slide is more a result of top competition rather than a fault in Joe's abilities. That being said, if Stevenson loses the bout, to an up-and-coming Nate Diaz, his UFC stock could drop to an all time low, perhaps causing him to be cut by the organization. Stevenson recently went to train with Greg Jackson's camp, perhaps a sign that there is indeed pressure to perform from within the organization. 

Nate Diaz turned his victory on the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter into a five fight win streak. That was until Diaz lost a narrow split decision to Clay Guida. A victory over Stevenson will once again put Diaz in striking distance of some of the top UFC lightweights. 

This match will most likely follow the script of Nate's previous fights against Kurt Pellegrino and Clay Guida. Both bouts saw Diaz matched against a wrestler, like Joe Stevenson, and in both fights the wrestler got out to an early lead by taking down the lanky Diaz and preventing his submission attempts. The difference came in the outcomes. Pellegrino got caught in a triangle choke in the third round where as Guida escaped Diaz's submission attempts to pull out a narrow decision victory. I think we can expect to see the same strategy from Stevenson. 

In Stevenson's previous fight against Diego Sanchez he received a great deal of criticism for standing with Sanchez as oppose to utilizing his solid wrestling skills to put pressure on a fighter that had cut to lightweight for the first time in his career. Perhaps the criticism and the potential of being cut by the UFC will motivate Stevenson to use his strongest skill set and avoid standing. 

If Stevenson can turn the fight against Diaz into a wrestling match, something other wrestlers have succeeded at, he will increase his potential for victory. While a grappling match increases the danger of submissions Stevenson's submission defense should be on par, if not better than Clay Guida's (Stevenson recently earned his black belt from Robert Drysdale) someone who effectively counter Diaz's Jiu-Jitsu. 

Diaz does posses legit submission skills though (he earned a purple belt under renowned Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Cesar Gracie) but Guida and Pellegrino demonstrated that those skills can be neutralized with high intensity wrestling. 

If Stevenson decides to stand and trade he could be in for a long night. Diaz may not have the boxing skills of his brother but the 6'0" fighter has a much longer reach than the 5'7" Stevenson. Diaz could easily pepper the smaller Stevenson with jabs all the while racking up points. With the discussion of this fight being a 'do or die' match for Joe I think it is safe to assume that he will attempt to use his best skill set in an attempt to win rather than put on a good show. 

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