Is Thiago Alves Really GSP's Toughest Test to Date?

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jun 19, 2009 11:02 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 4 comments

Let me start by getting a couple of the obvious points out of the way first:

1) We're entering a two week lull in major fight cards, so yes, I'm going to start talking about UFC 100 already.

2) The UFC has to promote every fight with one of their biggest stars as their "toughest test to date" in the same way that you love the man or woman you're with right now more than anyone you've ever loved in your life before... wink wink.

3) In part, this is a social experiment to see if all the rabid GSP fans on Yardbarker will jump all over this post.

Now that we've got that out of the way, let's get down to brass tax, shall we?

With UFC 100 next on the schedule, the promo pieces are everywhere these days, including being shown 497 times during the last episode of The Ultimate Fighter. Trust me, I counted.

As I mentioned in point #2, I know there is a portion of the billing that is obligatory; you're not going to build up a fight like this as Georges St-Pierre faces an easier challenge than he has as of late when he takes on Thiago "The Pit Bull" Alves. I get that.

But here's the rub: in pushing Alves, the UFC is referencing his "demolition" of Matt Hughes. Once again, some of this is understandable as Matt Hughes is a much more widely known name than Alves' actual last victim Josh Koscheck and it's not like Alves ran through vintage Matt Hughes. The Matt Hughes Alves beat was the same guy that eeked out a decision over Matt Serra a couple months back and beating that guy isn't as big an accomplishment as the UFC Marketing & Publicity department would like you to believe.

Here is where we start to have a little fun. Just so people don't start calling me a homer and thinking that I'm firmly planted on Team GSP simply for this fight simply because he and I have the same home and native land, the main person of reference in all this will be Thiago Alves himself.

While I could certainly just bring up names of St-Pierre's record, going back through Alves' fights and analyzing them on their own and in reference to GSP's performance against the same opponent will be more unbiased. Or at least that's what I'll tell myself and all of you for right now.

Josh Koscheck

Alves and Kos fought back in October with "The Pit Bull" earning a unanimous decision over the TUF 1 alum. While Alves clearly dominated the fight from bell to bell, it should be noted that Koscheck stepped in and took this fight on short notice when Diego Sanchez got injured during training. While the short notice change of opponent changes things for Alves, I'm one of those people who believes that the guy who has been training for an extended period regardless of opponent should always come out on top of the guy who just got the call a couple weeks ago.

All that being said, when GSP made his return to the ring after losing his welterweight belt to Matt Serra, it was Koscheck that he faced and the two went the distance as well, with GSP earning the same unanimous decision that Alves would later earn.

That makes Josh Koscheck a push.

Matt Hughes

I've already stated that this wasn't the Matt Hughes who dominated the welterweight division for all those years. Personally, this was the fight where I knew without a doubt that Matt Hughes should be hanging them up and heading back to the farm. Alves definitely clobbered Hughes with a sick flying knee, but again, there is a wrinkle. Alves failed to make weight for this fight and while it wasn't like he came in weighing 220 or anything like that (he weighted 174), the energy and strength that Alves didn't have to expend cutting those final, most difficult few pounds is something that can easily impact a fight.

Hughes is an interesting opponent when it comes to GSP because the two have had three fights with St-Pierre holding a 2-1 edge and back-to-back wins. While the second victory came only six months prior to Hughes loss to Alves, the first win came in Novemeber 2006, when Matt Hughes was still Matt Hughes.

Edge: St-Pierre

Karo Parisyan

"The Pit Bull" smashed St-Pierre's current teammate and training partner when they met at UFC Fight Night 13, securing a stoppage in the early stages of the second round due to strikes. While I'm not a big Karo Parisyan fan, the guy is a solid opponent for anyone at 170 and Alves steamrolled him in impressive fashion.

On the other hand, GSP earned a unanimous decision victory over "The Heat" when he made his debut with the organization back at UFC 46. Normally, this is where I would go on about how much more evolved GSP is as a fighter now and whatever and whatever to make my case, but we're using Alves as the template and he had the more impressive win.

Edge: Alves

Jon Fitch

This is the one that people (like myself) will use as the measuring stick for this fight. Alves and Fitch met back at Fight Night 5 in June 2006 when they were both starting to climb the ranks of the welterweight division. Fitch took the win, stopping Alves in the second round. Here too I could play the "he's come a long way since then card," but results are results and we're looking at results.

As we all know, St-Pierre put an end to Fitch's UFC winning streak last August with a thoroughly dominating performance, although he wasn't able to put away the former Purdue Boilermaker. Still, with scores of 50-43, 50-44, and 50-44, it's clear to see how lopsided this one was.

Edge: GSP

Now that we're through with the similar opponents - where GSP has a 2-1 edge with one Josh Koscheck push - it must be acknowledged that both of these fighters have evolved and come a long way from earlier fights. If Alves were to step into the ring with Jon Fitch again, I truly believe the outcome would be very different, just as it would if GSP and Parisyan mixed it up again.

As much as I would love to sit here and cite GSP's battles with vintage Matt Hughes, two wins over B.J. Penn and the domination of Jon Fitch as clear examples of why he should have less of a problem with Thiago Alves on July 11, I just can't bring myself to do it.

Penn never did and never will have any business fighting in any weight class except lightweight. I know he wants to test himself against the best and avenge being "robbed" the first time out against St-Pierre and whatever, but the dude is lightweight and if GSP didn't pound the bejesus out of him the way he did at UFC 94, I would have been shocked.

I already stated my belief that Alves - Fitch 2 would go differently than Alves-Fitch 1 turned out, so that crosses him off the list too and while the extra weight and declining skills of Matt Hughes certainly worked in Alves' favor, he really did lay a beatin' on the old farm boy that night in London, only to follow it up with an even more impressive performance against Josh Koscheck.

Truth be told, when I started writing this piece I didn't think this was the conclusion I would come to. I actually made the "Alves lost to Jon Fitch" argument last night at work, but in looking back at things and being realistic and objective, there is only one conclusion that I can stand behind without wavering:

Thiago Alves IS the toughest test to date for Georges St-Pierre and the welterweight champion better be prepared.

Poll

Do you think Thiago Alves is Georges St-Pierre's toughest test yet?

Yes

99 votes

No

55 votes

154 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Definitely

Without question, Alves is GSP’s toughest challenge. I’ve been making this argument since Alves emerged as a likely contender. I’ll take it a step further and predict a new Welterweight champion will be crowned on July 11.

I’ve said it before to people. Stylistically, if you were to build the “perfect challenger” for St. Pierre, you’d want a technical striker with KO power and excellent takedown defense. That describes Alves to a T. Throw in the fact that he is physically larger than St. Pierre and he becomes an even greater threat.

Plus, I’m still not sold on St. Pierre’s chin and, more importantly, his ability to recover. Images of him stumbling around like Mr. Maggoo after the first shot from Serra are still fresh in my mind. Granted Serra is the second hardest hitter in the division, but Alves is first. On the Arlovski-Correira scale of glass to granite jaws, I’d put St. Pierre in the slightly south of middle range based on the Serra KO and the amount of damage in the first round of the first Penn fight. As far as recovery, GSP seems to be a momentum based fighter both positive and negative. When he begins to take over on an opponent, he just gets better and better and causes more damage. But, when he takes a little bit damage, he rapidly goes downhill. Granted, these are limited observation, since, quite frankly, GSP hasn’t been in trouble much in fights. He’s that good.

It still comes down to strategy, though. All in all, I feel Alves just has the physical advantage and it’ll come down to whether or not St. Pierrre and Greg Jackson can figure out a gameplan to overcome it. First and foremost, that plan needs to involve a lot of head movement.St. Pierre needs to avoid that one good shot at all costs. He should also try and catch leg kicks for takedowns. Otherwise, he’s going to have a hard time getting Alves on his back. Finally, he needs to get the fight to the later rounds and test Alves’ cardio in the championship rounds. There, that 200lb frame is going to become a detriment to Alves.

For Alves, he needs to do what he does best. Pound away at St. Pierre with a varying array of strikes on the feet and avoid/muscle out of takedowns. One smart move would be to work the body in the early going. I’ve noticed GSP has a tendency to hold his hands high and expose his body. Serra used this to his advantage and Fitch started to throw some decent bodywork late in their fight with some success. Both times, that lead to GSP lowering his hands a bit and allowing some shots to get through. It worked magic for Serra and even Fitch managed to cut him towards the end of their fight. At the end of the first round, Alves should go for broke and try a flying knee to the ribs. If he hits, it’s a major debilitating shot for GSP and if misses, he doesn’t have to worry about taking a ton of damage before the bell.

Like I said, this fight favor “The Pitbull” and a lot of people are underestimating his shot.

by Steve W on Jun 20, 2009 5:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’d say yes, absolutely. Stylistically, he’s a completely new threat to GSP. He’s the most diverse striker he’s faced and the most powerful stiker. His takedown defence is good and he’s a masive welterweight. That said, GSP a better wrestler, has better BJJ and doesn’t have to kill himself to make the weight, so his conditioning will probably be superior, so I predict that he stops him in the 4th or the 5th.He’s also going to have a ridiculous reach advantage. Should be pretty interesting

" Man is not made for defeat. A man can be destroyed but not defeated "
- Hemingway

by Hellsing on Jun 20, 2009 8:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Love the analysis guys and have to agree that Alves poses some serious issues. Very, very excited for this fight.

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jun 20, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

same here i vote for yes, i also think that the pitbuill is by far GSP toughest opponent yet, the way i predict it, Alves will win via TKO while GSP gonna win it by Decision

by awesome21 on Jun 21, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs