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Prospect Watch: Who's Next?

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One of the great things about Mixed Martial Arts is all the speculation and fantasy match-making that goes on. We all talk about who should fight who and what guys we think are bound for greatness or destined to fail.

Like all of you, I'm prone to this kind of activity myself, taking it one step further with an actual list of up and comers at the start of 2009 while I was writing for another site. Hard to believe, I know - someone else was willing to let me schlep it up on the keyboard. Anyway...

Now that we're reached the midway point of the calendar year, I've gone back to that original list and made some revision. Not that I was too far off the mark or anything; actually, I've had a pretty solid year of prospecting. Outside of Jake Rosholt who suffered from the folding of the WEC Middleweight division and a sudden step up in competition, most of the list have done pretty well.

Actually, most of the revision come from guys succeeding and no longer really qualifying as prospects. After all, how can I rightfully call Eddie Alvarez a prospect after the display he put on during the Bellator Fighting Championships or give Brock Lesnar top billing when he has the UFC Heavyweight title around his waist? I still think neither has reached their ceiling, but they're too well-known for prospect status anymore.

Star-divide

There are, however, an ever-expanding crop of up-and-comers willing to step in where Rosholt fell off and Lesnar and Alvarez departed. These are my picks for the best prospects in Mixed Martial Arts today. As always, I look forward to your thoughts and recommendations in the comments.

10. Ben Askren

I'm hesitant about tossing another former collegiate champion with limited experience into the 10 spot again, as this is where Rosholt landed in the original incarnation. This one, like the selection of Rosholt previously, is completely predicated on Askren staying away from the name-brand organizations while he builds up his skills. If he takes his time and adds to his impressive wrestling pedigree, he could be a star in a couple of years.

9. Luis Cane

Very much a known commodity after three impressive wins in the UFC, I truly believe the 28-year-old Brazilian can continue to climb the ladder in the Light Heavyweight division. His lone loss in the Octagon came via DQ for a knee to a downed opponent (James Irvin) and he looked great in dismantling Jason Lambert, Sokoudjou and Steve Cantwell. While he's currently the odd man out at 205 - everyone else seemingly has an opponent lined up - Cane is in the mix and only a couple good wins away from talks of a title shot.

8. Gray Maynard

Another holdover from my original list, "The Bully" has since added another win to his undefeated record and earns extra attention through Frankie Edgar's win over Sean Sherk at UFC 98. While some dislike Maynard's heavy reliance on his wrestling skills - you know, the old lay and pray - grinding out wins over quality opponents while continuing to improve the other areas of your game is okay by me. September will be a serious test for the former Michigan State Spartan, as Maynard has been matched up against the returning Roger Huerta at Fight Night 19.

7. Blagoi Ivanov

Normally, guys who have never taken part in a Mixed Martial Arts fight would not make a list like this, but these are not normal circumstances. Anyone who beats Fedor Emelianenko at anything will garner my attention, whether it's Tic-Tac-Toe, a game of Gin or a Combat Sambo as Ivanov did back in November. The day after Fedor takes on Josh Barnett at Affliction: Trilogy, Ivanov will make his debut at Sengoku 9 against veteran Kazuyuki Fujita. We'll find out very quickly if Ivanov has what it takes.

6. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson

I think Anthony Johnson has what it takes to one day be the UFC Welterweight Champion. That being said, he's not there yet. He's displayed outstanding striking and I loved the aggression he showed the second time around with Kevin Burns, but right now, he is able get by simply on athleticism and it will take more than that to become a champion. I look for Johnson to take a step up in competition (Dustin Hazelett, Brock Larson) before the year is over.

5. Chris Horodecki

Maybe I'm a little biased because he's Canadian and from London, the last Ontario city I called home before becoming a West Coast kid. Or maybe Horodecki deserves to be on this list, thanks to his 13-1 record including wins over Ryan Schultz and Bart Palaszewski. Why don't we wait and see what happens at Affliction: Trilogy when "The Polish Hammer" takes on Dan Lauzon before making our final decision?

4. Josh Grispi

He's not yet 21, he's 13-1 and riding a three-fight win streak in the WEC with wins over Mark Hominick, Micah Miller and Jens Pulver, the last of which took just 33 seconds. What's not to like? The crazy thing is that Grispi isn't even the best prospect in the division...

3. Jose Aldo

That honor belongs to Aldo, who needed just 8 seconds to split Cub Swanson's eyebrow open and close the book on their fight at WEC 41. The Brazilian sensation is just 22 and has decimated five consecutive opponents under the WEC banner. We might find out real quickly if Aldo is as impressive as he's looked thus far, as many believe he will be the next challenger for Mike Thomas Brown's featherweight title.

2. Cain Velasquez

Personally, I think the Cheick Kongo fight was a bit of a step backwards for Velasquez, and I really don't like the match-up against Shane Carwin at UFC 104 either. But sometimes you have to take a step backwards before you can charge ahead. Velasquez has all the talent in the world and he will surely continue to improve his striking. If he were a light heavyweight, he'd be afforded an opportunity to come along at a more reasonable pace, a la Luis Cane. But the lack of strong competition and noteworthy contenders in the heavyweight ranks will force Velasquez to face a tougher challenge sooner than others.

1. Jon Jones

Where Velasquez looked just average against a veteran like Cheick Kongo, Jones looked outstanding against "The American Psycho" Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94. Yes, he also looked gassed by the end of things, but check the picture that led off this piece. Dude broke out a belly-to-back suplex against a veteran like Bonnar, not to mention several other impressive throws and an assortment of spinning elbows and precise strikes. There are still elements he needs to work on - stamina being #1 in my books - but "Bones" has as bright a future as anyone in the business. 

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good list

have some questions about the order. Ivanov above Maynard?
Horodecki above Maynard?
Get real!
lol
Maynard is one big win away from a title shot in the UFC. Some of the guys above him are years from contention in a major organization.

Follow me on Twitter @KidNate

by Kid Nate on Jul 2, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, you can’t please everyone, right? LMAO

Maynard: as you say, he is close to a title shot, which increases his exposure and therefore drops him down the list a little in my books…

Which should prompt you to question the Jon Jones at #1 and Cain Velasquez at #2, and rightfully so. What also keeps Maynard down the list a ways for me is that a guy like Huerta could be serious trouble for him and knock him down the ladder, much like Cain will when Carwin clobbers him later in the year.

For better or worse – and perhaps without continuous logic and criteria along the way – this is how they stack up for me…

Who is your Top 10?

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 2, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I’m guessing you mean Toby Imada of inverted triangle on Jorge Masvidal fame…

He’s actually been around for a long time, despite being only 29. Been fighting pro since ’98 and has faced some well-known opponents too, just never in the big leagues.

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 2, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

There’s a guy called Tim Radcliffe coming up on the UK scene. This guy is very talented, and has a legit black belt in BJJ and his striking has come along brilliantly. He’s got an awkward southpaw style and a strong jab. This guy could be very very good in a year or two. He’s coming off a domination of Cage Rage veteran Abdul Mohamed. Watch out for him.

Of the guys you’ve mentioned, I’d say Jon Jones has the most raw potential. I really like his style, very exciting and aggressive. Aldo is incredible too. I’m not totally sold on Velasquez yet. He probably needs a little more cage time for me to see what he’s really capable of.

" Man is not made for defeat. A man can be destroyed but not defeated "
- Hemingway

by Hellsing on Jul 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks for the heads up on Radcliffe. I’ll be sure to keep an eye and ear out for him…

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 2, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Holdup…What didn’t you like about that match-up against Kongo?..That was an impressive and dominant performance by Cain

by The Bronzeville Bully on Jul 2, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions  

He out-wrestled a guy who is widely known to have zero wrestling / takedown defense. What is so impressive about that? Carmelo Marrero beat Kongo by applying the same game plan and I don’t see anyone hyping up Marrero…

A win is a win is a win, but he also got knocked on his ass a couple times and showed – IMO – that there are still areas of his game that need a bunch of work.

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 2, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know if you were not impressed because, maybe, he was hyped as the next incredible thing by his trainers, and you fell into the hype, you should not be impressed with his performance and be dissapointed…

First off, the guy is 26 and just made the transition from wrestling at Arizona State to MMA. He has six fights under his belt and he threw around Kongo like he was a child. It so embarrasing, that I felt bad or Kongo.
Also, you say Kongo has no wrestling? When he fought Herring, Evensen, Hardonk and even Cain he went for takedown and he executed them. Cain, I remind you is an All-American wrestler from Arizona State, how is it that he can’t stop a guy takedowns who you say kongo has zero wrestling. Now I am in no way saying he great wrestler, but I am pointing out that he executed take downs in his previous fights before hist matchup with Cain.
Since the Marrero fight, Kongo has worked diligently to improve his wrestling/takedown defense, he showed it in the Al-Turk fight. Al-Turk is suppose to experience high level Greco-Roman guy.
He did get rocked and knocked his ass, but I expected that even though his trainers said he picked up the striking quickly and he could compete in pro boxing against the Manny Pacquio’s (okay they didn’t say that) because a) he is going against Kongo, a veteran striker who has been Kickboxing mostly his entire life b) this is probably his first time competing against a striker at he level of Kongo. He was pretty much a novice striking with Kongo, just like Kongo is pretty much novice when he is grappling with Cain.

Also, before you mention those strikes on the ground were not hurting Kongo, look at fight metric stats. Velasquez landed 262 strikes to Kongo’s 42. Those strikes may not have finished but I guarantee they were stinging after that fight. Give Kongo credit for Kongo for being tough trying to fight back on his back.

In summary, Cain still is learning. Prior to this fight, no won was able to dominate Kongo like Velasquez did. Cheick Kongo, was 7-2 in the UFC, and no when two of those were losses split decision. So, Kong has weakness on the ground but so does Jake Shields in striking and he still ranked in top 5, Even though Velasquez got rocked real bad from Kongo, he kept his composure, regained focus and take Kongo down and mauled him the entire fight. That is part of being a good fighter, taking shot and not panic and get back.

by The Bronzeville Bully on Jul 3, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think that this taps into some of the issues with the UFC HW division. Its a thin division where there are basically 4 guys on the top with 3 guys who all have potential to be up there. The problem is there is not a stable of guys to test the 3 guys with tons potential.

Cheick Kogno, Gabirel Gonzaga and Heath Herring were suppose to be that crowd but their deficiencies have left us unsatisfied with those tests.

watchkalibrun.com

by Zak Woods on Jul 3, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

All Kinds of Things to Tackle

1) Don’t compare Jake Shields and Cain Velasquez, because it’s apples and cinder blocks. Yes, Shields has shortcomings in his striking, but he’s a deadly BJJ player and has beaten some of the best WW in the world, while Cain has one solid win.

2) Kongo’s three UFC loses are all to strong wrestlers – Marrero, Herring and Cain. They took him down, kept him down and grounded out wins. Whether Kongo got the odd takedown in there is irrelevant to me because in this day and age, everyone should be able to secure the odd takedown and have takedown defense. Otherwise, fights like this happen to you.

3) You can’t say he “just” made the transition to MMA like he started learned last year. He’s been doing this for nearly three years now. Besides, that sort of goes along with my saying his is still green and needs to learn some things…

All I was saying and will continue to say, especially now that he’s matched up against Shane Carwin for UFC 104, is that Cain has holes in his game and still needs work before he will truly be a contender.

Zak’s comments are probably the most apt of all – we scrutinize Velasquez because there just aren’t that many quality HW prospects and contenders out there.

Shamelessly self-promoting since 1997...

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 3, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm Going To Make One More Response..Hopefully we can end

1) I was actually comparing Shields striking vs Kongo’s ground game. Everyone seems to dismiss Kongo as a good fighter because his weakness on the ground. If we’re doing that, let’s dismiss Shields as top 5 welterweight because of his weak standup. I can easily say if he is matched up against an elite strike with great takedown defense, he is done , but I am not. I can easily say Robbie Lawler gift wrapped that guillotine to Shields but, Im not going to as well. The truth is, despite his defiencies in his standup, he was the better fighter on those nights and it should really take nothing away from him being a good fighter. But It’s always everytime Kongo gets in with a wrestler he always gets written off. He went Al-Turk, he stopped his takedown attempts. Cain is on another level in wrestling that Al-Turk.

2) Cain fight was the only fight in UFC where Kongo clearly lost. He didn’t just lose, he got manhandled. This was the first time in UFC I seen Kongo get dominated. The Herring and Marrero fight was split decision losses. Watching both fights, you can see why the judges in the fight could score it for Kongo. In Marrero fight, IMO, I think this being a “bad fight” for Kongo was grossly overstated. Don’t get me wrong, in that fight showed that he needed a lot of work but he was not getting killed as many have stated. If watched you can say Marrero won round 1 controlling the action on top and getting a couple shots. Round 2 where it becomes questionable, Marrero took Kongo down a couple of times, but he laying and praying in that round that the ref had to stand it up a couple times. Believe it or not Kongo actually had a guillotine in round and nail a couple of shots while he was on his back and had leg kicks. Round 3 Kongo clearly won, not only that he stuff Marrero takedown attempts.
In his fight against Herring, it was actually a close fight, it went back and forth fight that could of went either way, in which Kongo chose to wrestle with him more than stand with him and at times herring got a reversal after he was taken down by Kongo. Btw..Herring is not known for his wrestling.

3) I know he trained for three years, but you can only get better with more experience. He really needed at least 8-10 fights under his belt before going UFC. his first fights were in October and december of 2006. He didn’t fight at all in 2007 and decided to make the jump to UFC because promoters couldnt find opponents for him. And also, those earlier fights, most of them ended in the first round, with him dominated with strikes on the ground. Kongo was actually his first fight where we can see where he is in other areas such as his standup. It went exactly how I predicted. He got handed in that area.

He does have holes in his game, but keep in mind he still learning along way. IMO Shane Carwin and Velasquez are not that different from each other. This is an evenly matched fight. The difference is Carwin has the strength and the power that enable him to end fights quickly and decisively. Carwin also got holes too in his standup as well. He did get his nose busted in his last fight within the first min. In this fight, it pretty much going to come down to Cain’s relentness and speed vs Carwin’s strenght and power. I think Cain has to control the fight with his wrestling and avoid getting into exchanges with Carwin.

by The Bronzeville Bully on Jul 3, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

You had to live in London? My apologies.

Also: can we include women on the list? Sarah Kaufman jumps to mind…

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Jul 2, 2009 7:25 PM EDT reply actions  

We can totally include Sarah Kaufman… working on securing an interview with the Victoria native.

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 2, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

please tell me it is for WKR!

watchkalibrun.com

by Zak Woods on Jul 2, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I can make it happen, it will appear here, yes…

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 2, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can help with that. I’ve interviewed her before, and she helps other people kick my ass twice weekly (she’s a trainer at my gym and I suck).

"I'm AJB and I endorse this nut-puncher."

by AJB on Jul 3, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Got it lined up already, but you can certainly tell her how excited you are to read about it and that I know my shit… it always helps when people know you’re not some moron who is going to ask stupid questions.

Shamelessly self-promoting since 1997...

by E. Spencer Kyte on Jul 3, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

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