UFC 100 Preview Shannon Gugerty vs. Matt Grice

Matt Grice (9-2, 1-2 UFC) vs. Shannon Gugerty (11-3, 1-1 UFC)

The UFC usually begins their preliminary card with two hungry lightweights. UFC 100 is no different as Matt Grice and Shannon Gugerty will go to war as one of the first fights of the evening.

Matt Grice was a top high school wrestling prospect.  However, before the start of his freshman year at Oklahoma he was injured in a car crash.  This would be a sign of things to come as injuries hindered his collegiate career.  Grice would later switch to MMA (how this is better for the body I do not know) and found initial success winning his first nine professional fights.

Yet Matt's run in the UFC hasn't been nearly as successful. Grice lost his UFC debut to Terry Etim but was able to rebound with a split decision victory over Jason Black. However Grice dropped his next bout the Matt Veach. Now he is 1-2 in the UFC Grice is most likely fighting for a contract. 

Shannon Gugerty actually started his career by beating current WEC fighter Cub Swanson.  Gugerty was sporting a 12-2 when he won his UFC debut against then undefeated Dale Hartt.  Gugerty's last fight was as a last minute replacement against Spencer "The King" Fisher, where Shannon lost at the end of the third round.

Conventional Wisdom:  Being an early fight on the card there is very little consensus within the MMA online community (at least yet).  However, WKR believes that the conventional wisdom will side with Gugerty.  Wrestlers can have major problems with grapplers such as Shannon.  While Grice has not made a routine of getting caught it can frequently be the downfall for wrestlers. 

However, Grice has power in his hands and will most likely try to use his wrestling to keep the fight on his feet.  Also, he was very close to winning his last fight before getting caught toward the end of the round.  Some people, namely Joe Rogan, believe that the referee stopped the fight too early.  While Shannon has a triangle and guillotine choke in his win column, half of his submission victories are via rear-naked chokes. I do not see Gugerty being able to get Grice's back in this one. 

WKR Opinion:  While everything I stated above is true, and makes sense, I think Shannon Gugerty will take this one.  Grice should, and probably will, try to stand with Shannon, but I can see him getting frustrated and falling back to his comfort level.  Despite not knocking anyone out in three years, Spencer Fisher has legit KO power and Shannon was able to withstand that.  Gugerty has decent Muay Thai and stand up which should be able to counter Grice if he chooses to stand.  If Grice doesn't find success on his feet he will go in for the takedown but that opens up Grice to Gugerty's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills.

UFC 100 coverage