WKR Gambling advice UFC 100

For those looking to lose some money have fun gambling this weekend here is WKR's gambling advice column. 

Mac Danzig (+160) over Jim Miller (-200)
When a fighter with loads of experience may be facing the proverbial firing squad and is a not too horrible an underdog you may want to bet on him. That's the logic behind this pick. The conventional wisdom has Miller winning this fight but Danzig has been in some wars before and may be able to pull this one out for a nice +1.6 payout.

Alan Belcher (+260) over Yoshihirio Akiyama (-340)
Akiyama is without a doubt the more talented fighter but since this his Octagon debut (Octo-jitters) while coming off a long lay-off (almost a year) and not to mention the questions still surrounding his desire Belcher seems like a smart bet for a big pay-off. Not to mention the fact that Alan Belcher seems to win fights he is not suppose to and gets his ass kicked in fights he is suppose to win. Possibly a good trend to bet on. 

Michael Bisping (+185) over Dan Henderson (-225)
I can't believe that I am even considering picking Bisping. I do not think for an instant that Bisping can or will win this fight but I am afraid that I am being blinded by anger and Ohio bias so I may not be thinking rationally about this fight.  

I don't know if you have heard about this recession thing going on right now but for those who can only spend a hundred dollars on gambling, Zach Krantz gives a great breakdown of how to spread out your single Benjamin to get the most bang for your buck. 

$15 on Alan Belcher at +220: Akiyama is better the fighter, we might get the Jason Day version of Alan Belcher, and I think Akiyama will win the fight.  However, there is also a chance we might get the Dennis Kang version of Belcher and there are rumors the "Sexyama" is not the same fighter he used to be.  At +220 it is not a bad idea to throw down some cash and try and pick an upset.

$30 on Jake O'Brien at +300: Jon Jones has enormous potential and is a physical freak, but O'Brien is no cake walk.  Jones is still very young in age and experience.  He also has not been put on his back, which is something O'Brien likes to do.  If this fight goes half way into the second round O'Brien has a real shot.  It may not be pretty and he may lay on top of Jones for 15 minutes, but at +300 I cannot pass this up.  If you are looking for good money upset I would definitely lay some cash down.  Put down a little and triple your bet.  Will Jones win, probably, but there is enough doubt for a +300.

$45 on St. Pierre at -285:  Is Thiago Alves the toughest fight St. Pierre has had, maybe.  Is Thiago Alves a better striker than Georges, yes.  However, the difference on the ground is not even close.  Georges was able to take down smear the floor with B.J. who has incredible take down defense and worldly BJJ.  It has improved, but Alves weakness is takedown defense.  People keep telling me this is a tough match-up for St. Pierre because of Alves striking game, but I think this is a good match-up for Georges.  I will not win a lot back, but I feel very confident about this bet.

$15 on Brock at -225: Please shut up Frank Mir up.  Seriously the man has a bigger ego than Lesnar.  Now that is a serious accomplishment.  It appears that some people think Brock has reached his peak because he is the champ, but we are witnessing something incredible.  He is a completely different fighter every time he gets into the cage.  There is so much room for him to grow because he is still so new to MMA and when his skill set matches his physical power it will be a scary thought for the rest of the UFC heavyweight division.

      P.S. If Mir wins then he can talk all he wants for all eternity and I will shut MY mouth.

At UFC 99 Zach Krantz went 3-2 and Zak Woods went 2-2.