Strikeforce Preview: Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida

Gilbert "El Nino" Melendez (15-2, 5-1 Strikeforce) vs. Mitsuhiro "Endless Fighter" Ishida (18-5-1, 1-0 Strikeforce)

The Story So Far: Scott Coker and Co. were forced to scramble when Josh "The Punk" Thompson announced that he would be unable to defend his title against Gilbert Melendez for the second time in a row due to a lingering leg injury.  With this card gaining a reputation as being one of the most snake-bitten of all time, and Strikeforce desperate to salvage a Lightweight title fight, the question became:  "Who could fit in as a suitable replacement for Thompson and actually give "El Nino" a challenging fight?"

Enter Mitsuhiro Ishida.

The 30-year old, "Endless Fighter" has gone through a bit of an up-and-down stretch as of late and is coming off of a first round TKO loss to current Sengoku Lightweight champion Mizuto Hirota back at Shooto Tradition Final in May.  Before that disappointing loss, Ishida had won his previous two fights, including an armbar victory over Justin Wilcox in his Strikeforce debut this past September.  Prior to that, Ishida was a dark horse candidate to win the Dream Lightweight Grand Prix but was upset in the quarterfinal round by Caol Uno.  Ishida also holds notable victories against UFC and Pride veterans, Marcus Aurelio and David Bielkheden, as well as noteworthy defeats to Takanori Gomi and "Shaolin" Riberio.

Meanwhile, the 29-year old "El Nino" started off his career with a remarkable 13-straight wins.  The Cesar Gracie-trained Melendez has competed in Pride, Shooto, and Rumble on the Rock and was the very first WEC Lightweight Champion, which he won in just his fourth fight.  Melendez also won the Strikeforce Lightweight title after defeating Clay Guida in an epic war that many consider to be one of the greatest fights in MMA history.  Times have been tough lately for Melendez though as he has alternated wins and losses in his last four fights - including losing his Strikeforce title in a unanimous decision defeat to Josh "The Punk" Thompson in which he failed to win a single round on any of the judge's scorecards.

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Conventional Wisdom

The first match between these two was very even and could have been scored either way.  The general feeling amongst MMA fans is that although Melendez is listed as the solid favorite, an Ishida win wouldn't be surprising at all.

WKR Analysis

This Interim Lightweight title fight is, of course, a rematch from their New Year's Eve 2007 bout at Yarennoka!  That bout marked Melendez's first career defeat and it remains one of the only two losses of his professional career.  In their first matchup, Melendez struggled with Ishida's superior wrestling and relentless takedown attempts.  I fully expect Ishida to employ a similar strategy this time around, especially after seeing how well Josh Thompson used his wrestling advantage in shutting out "El Nino" on the judge's scorecards back before his leg developed gangrene. 

Melendez as well as other Cesar Gracie-trained fighters (I'm looking at you Nate) have long had a weakness against effective wrestlers who are able to push the pace non-stop and constantly change levels to keep their opponents guessing.  Ishida's frenetic style against Melendez at Yarennoka! was very reminiscent of Clay Guida's and there are many who feel that Guida's split decision loss against Melendez should have gone the other way.  I am inclined to believe that Cesar Gracie has identified and addressed Melendez's weakness against dominant wrestlers and we will see a different and more focused fighter on Saturday night.                 

Ishida, on the other hand, has consistently failed to get over the hump when put in the most important matches of his career.  He was outclassed and overwhelmed by Takanori Gomi in their 2006 Pride Shockwave bout, choked out by Caol Uno in Dream when he was the heavy favorite, all in addition to his last fight against Hirota in Shooto where he was stopped in just under two minutes.  How will Ishida rebound when facing vengeance-seeking Melendez?

Fun Fact

Gilbert Melendez has fought in the United States a total of 12 times, with 10 of them taking place in California (the other two were in Hawaii).  This will be Mitsuhiro Ishida's third fight outside of Japan (two in California, one in Hawaii).

Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg coverage