The UFC 100 replay, which was intended to counter Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg, outdrew the Showtime event four to one. 

The UFC 100 replay averaged 2 million viewers while Carano vs. Cyborg drew an average of 576,000 viewers. The Strikeforce event did peak at 856,000 viewers during the main event. Strikeforce also nearly doubled their ratings from previous events and set a record for viewers on a Showtime MMA event. 

Showtime is only available in 21 million households (another website said 16.5 million households) where as Spike is available in approximately 98 million households. 

That means the UFC 100 replay was available to five or six times as many people and outdrew Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg by only four to one. While these ratings are impressive showing for a replay event they are not nearly as dominant as their base viewership should indicate. Simple linear regression tells us if something is available to X times more people than X times people should show up, in this case that didn't happen.  

The UFC also sent out a press release describing the UFC 100 replay as a success specifically citing its dominance within the male 18-34 demographic. 

The telecast bested heavy sports competition during the day in the advertiser-coveted demographic of Men 18-34:

UFC 100 (Spike TV) - 513,000

PGA Championship (CBS) - 479,000

MLB Baseball (FOX) - 242,000

Strikeforce (Showtime) - 181,000

Any time in dealing with media relations you want to put your best foot forward. Zuffa has done this continuously by trumpeting their dominance within the 18-34 male demographic. However this is not a good indicator of main stream or overall appeal. 

Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg coverage

[Update: Note by Zak Woods, 08/19/09 7:10 PM EDT ]

Ed. note - Below was posted in a different article but further expands on the above comparison. 

There were several other numbers that WKR needed to be pointed out in lieu of our previous comparison of the Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg ratings versus UFC 100's ratings.

The UFC and Strikeforce have been down this path before. Strikeforce was preparing to hold their first event since picking up the pieces of ProElite and the UFC decided to counter the event with a replay of UFC 94. Comparing this data to the current data further illuminates the situation.

The UFC 94 replay, which was intended to counter broadcast Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz, did 1.9 million total viewers. This means that the UFC 100 replay only did 100,000 more total viewers than their previous replay, which would indicate that there is a market saturation for UFC replay products around 2 million viewers. Does this mean that the UFC drew away viewers from Strikeforce, probably not.

Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg held an average of 576,000 viewers with a peak of 856,000 viewers compare that to Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz which only did 364,000 viewers. That means Strikeforce grew their audience by 58%. If we compare the Shamrock vs. Diaz numbers to the peak viewers of Carano vs. Cyborg then Strikeforce's peak audience was 135% larger for their latest event. Again, indicating strong growth when compared to the UFC nominal increase in replay ratings of 5%.

Couple this comparison with the obvious differences in premium cable and regular cable and it is easy to conclude that Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg was a success.

WKR will be adding this comparison to our previous post.