UFC 102 Preview: Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia

Nate Marquardt (28-8-2, 7-2 UFC) vs. Demian Maia (10-0, 5-0 UFC)

The Story So Far: The UFC wants to bill this fight as a bout to determine the #1 contender in the middleweight division. While this fight is certainly important to the 185lbs. division the #1 contender is currently Dan Henderson. Unless Marquardt or Maia finish the fight in spectacular fashion there is little possibility the winner will jump Dan. However all three fighters share one thing in common, the current champion, Anderson Silva, doesn't think any of them are worthy opponents. 

Demian Maia's perfect record reintroduced to UFC fans what dominant and superbly technical Jiu-Jitsu can do against poorly trained opponents. Chael Sonnen, Nate Quarry, Jason MacDonald, Ed Herman and Ryan Jensen all fell to the chokes of Maia. 

Nate Marquardt has been on the war path since he was deducted two points in a fight against Thales Leites. Marquardt lost the bout but fight fans lost the war as we were treated to one of the worst main events in recent UFC history: Leites vs. Silva. 

Marquardt won his next two bouts, defeating Martin Kampmann (who is now in contention for the welterweight title) and a ninety second highlight reel finish against Wilson Gouveia. 

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Conventional Wisdom: This fight feels like a throwback to 2002. It's Maia's Jiu-Jitsu wizardry versus Marquardt's strength and power. 

WKR Analysis: This fight could be boring. Like Thales Leites vs. Anderson Silva boring. Not because one fighter is as horrible as Leites was that night but simply due to the Maia's skill on the ground and the high stakes involved. Marquardt would be wise to avoid the ground and any position that could lead to the ground. That means zero clinching and a lot of circling out of the pocket in order to strike from distance. Not exactly the most visually appealing style. 

On the other hand we may be overrating Maia's submission skills. While he is certainly a master (eight of his ten wins came via submission) his five UFC wins are not exactly against the cremé de la cremé. Chael Sonnen and Nate Quarry both have sub-standard submission defense and when Maia fought someone with better submission skills, like Jason MacDonald, the fight didn't end until the third round. If Marquardt has comparable skills to MacDonald than he can get this fight to a decision where the scoring system does not favor Jiu-Jitsu fighters. 

Fun Fact: Nate Marquardt tested positive for nandrolone after he defeated Ivan Salaverry. Marquardt successfully lobbied the NSAC to reduce his sentence as he provided samples that showed his positive test could have come from over-the-counter supplements. 

UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira coverage