WKR Gambling Advice UFC 101

Another UFC event is here which means its time for another WKR Gambling advice column. UFC 101 seems to be filled with a lot of close fights with a few huge underdogs sprinkled in between for good measure. 

Zak Woods' picks

Forrest Griffin (+275) over Anderson Silva (-350)
Depending on you Caribbean gambling site of choice you can get Griffin up to +300 for his non-title fight against Anderson Silva. Do I honestly think that Forrest can defeat Silva? Not really, but after his past two upset victories over "Rampage" and "Shogun" I want my money on the right side of an upset this time. 

B.J. Penn (-260) over Kenny Florian (+200)
Not terrible odds for what seems like a sure thing. Seriously, can someone please tell me how Florian can win this fight? What did you say? By Burrito's in B.J.'s dressing room......I stand corrected. 

Johnny Hendricks (-115) over Amir Sadollah (-115)
Odds makers say this is a pick 'em so I will go with the guy who has actually fought in this decade. Sorry Amir, but you came out of one of the worst seasons in TUF history and you are really green and chronically injured. Of course, since this is your first real fight in the UFC they could be feeding you a bum so that they can keep their Inside the Octagon correspondent happy but Hendricks is a WEC veteran who has actually fought in the past eighteen months.  

Kendall Grove (+120) over Ricardo Almeida (-150)
I never feel confident about picking Kendall, especially since Almeida and Grove share a common opponent in Patrick Cote (both lost but Almeida's was by split decision). It almost feels like betting on a Nicholas Cage movie. However, I do feel that Grove turned a corner with the Evan Tanner bout, though his crazy celebration after beating Jason Day is troubling. Perhaps this is a teaser for all the chumps like me. Well you've been warn. 

Kurt Pellegrino (+175) over Josh Neer (-215)
How are these odds skewed so far in Neer's favor? They share a common opponent in Nate Diaz, while Pellegrino got caught by a late triangle choke he was on his way to a unanimous decision. Neer on the other hand squeaked out a narrow split decision. Do these facts back up the above odds? I expect Pellegrino to follow his Diaz game-plan except not get caught in a last minute triangle choke.  

UFC 101: Declaration coverage

Zak went 0-3  at UFC 100. 

Zach Krantz's picks

I do not really love any lines for Saturday night and will in all likely hood save most of my bets for Sunday or the August 15 Strikeforce event where the odds are looking much better. If I have to strum up a few I would go with...

Matt Riddle at -165: I like both fighters (a fan of them, not their skill sets). The truth is Riddle has shown the most improvement since the show now that he trains with a real camp. He dominated a veteran Dante Rivera with his first win and has looked better. I would not be shocked if Cramer can pull this out, but i like the progression i see in Riddle.

Forrest Griffin at +300: This is strictly based on odds. I fully expect Silva to win this fight and think Griffin is out matched on the feet and the ground, but when a former Light Heavyweight champ is one fight removed, where he was winning the fight, from his belt and has +300 odds you take it.

There is no way I will bet on this fight because I am completely blocked by bias, but if I had to chose on the title fight I would go with Florian getting +210. This is entirely because I want him to win and if I were smart I would chose B.J. Penn at -270. He is still the best lightweight in the division, coming off a loss (more motivation), and -270 is not that bad of odds. Florian best shot is keeping the fight on the fight and closing the distance (the clinch). B.J. Penn will unfortunately win this fight and is the smart bet, probably the smartest of the night.    

UFC 101: Declaration coverage

Zach went 2-2 at UFC 100.