UFC 101 Preview: BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian

BJ Penn (13-5-1, 9-4-1 UFC) vs. Kenny Florian (11-3, 9-2 UFC)

The Story So Far: It is always nice when I can write up a preview without having to do any research.  Both of these fighters are veterans and have been in the UFC for a long time.  Hardcore fans and casual fans have seen both fighters compete many times and have a strong understanding of each back story.  Penn is an athletic freak who is a BJJ champion, former UFC welterweight champion, and current UFC lightweight champion.  He is extremely skilled in all facets of the game and a true test to anyone in lightweight division.  Penn's question has been his commitment to the sport and his conditioning.  After getting his ass pounded to him by GSP and blaming it on the KY he is back to defend the lightweight belt.  Florian has already fought for the belt, but was defeated by Sean Sherk.  Penn's commitment may be under question, but the opposite is true for Florian.  It is not uncommon for raw fighters to develop and advance their skill sets, but to see a veteran do so is truly remarkable and that is why I am such a big Kenny Florian fan.  Every aspect of his game has improved every time he has stepped into the Octagon during his 6 fight win streak.  He is a dangerous Muay Thai striker with strong jiu-jitsu.  He has also finished 10 of 11 fights which makes me even more excited for this fight.

UFC 101: Declaration coverage

Conventional Wisdom: Penn is stronger on the ground and on his feet.  He is a better boxer with a quick jab and has good reach.  His athleticism is unreal along with his jiu-jitsu skills.  Kenny Florian is the definition of a well rounded fighter, but BJ Penn is supposedly better in most aspects.  BJ Penn is considered a wise bet at -260 which should say a lot.  There are a few people who believe Florian's threatening style and well balanced approach can get him a victory, but the majority of people feel Penn will take the fight.

WKR Analysis: Everything I said above is true.  Florian's two options are to either try and push the fight into the later rounds and use his advantage in the cardio department or try to get close and use his Muay Thai to overwhelm Penn to force a mistake.  Florian definitely has the better cardio, but Penn's wrestling and jiu-jitsu should make Kenny hesitant to take Penn to the ground.  Penn may have cardio issues, but he is not going to tire after three rounds standing.  Florian should try to frustrate Penn by continuously changing his attack and look for an opening.  Since Florian is skilled in all areas he should not allow Penn to get comfortable.  If Florian can either tire Penn out or force a mistake he has a shot.  Unfortunately neither of these will be easy to do as Penn is superior on the mat and can keep distance with his jab.

Fun Fact: I was friends with Mark DellaGrotte's girlfriend who told me I looked like Kenny Florian, but was better looking (I may have added the better looking part).  He was the first fighter I followed as I did not watch a lot of MMA around that time.