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Carlos Condit 23-5 (0-1 UFC) vs. Jake Ellenberger 21-4 (0-0 UFC)

The Story So Far: Condit was the WEC Welterweight Champion before the organization reduced its divisions to focus on the smaller weight classes.  Being the champion he was one of the WEC fighters to make the transition over to the UFC.  Condit lost an incredibly close decision to Martin Kampmann in his first dance inside the octagon (I feel stupid for saying first dance).  Kampmann's fight with Swick was scheduled to be a number one contender fight, before Swick's injury, which is a testament to Condit's legitimacy that he lost a split decision to man who was one fight away from fighting for the title.  It may sound like a stretch, but if he wins that fight (which easily could have gone his way) then he might be fighting for a shot to get whooped by George St. Pierre, lucky him.  Condit's second fight was scheduled to be against full time firefighter Chris Lytle, but due to injury newcomer Jake Ellenberger will be taking on Condit.

Ellenberger has fought more times than years he has been alive.  At only 24 years old he has 25 fights under his belt including a 2-2 record in the IFL, a fight with Bodog Fight, a few M-1 Challenges, and a KO victory at Bellator 11.  While he has not fought at the level of the UFC he does have a plethora of experience against decent competition.  He will be making his UFC debut while riding a four fight win streak. 

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Conventional Wisdom: This fight is viewed as a thank you to Carlos for his fight against Kampmann.  Condit will be the odds on favorite to win and the UFC probably hopes this fight will help showcase Condit's versatile striking and exciting fights.  It should also provide him with a "W" in the UFC and allow them to establish him as a future contender.  Condit is a fighter who possesses very few flaws.  He is a dynamic striker who uses a variety of strikes to keep his opponents guessing and is a BJJ black belt.  Condit's ability to work off his back will be key as Ellenberger is a stronger fighter who has trained out of Team Quest, yea he is a good wrestler.  Ellenberger likes to use his wrestling ability and power to take opponents down and pound them into the mat.  His stand up might not be the prettiest thing on planet, but it can pack a punch (pun intended).  Ellenberger has made claim he wants to throw down so this fight can easily turn into an exciting stand up fight where Condit's versatile accurate striking squares off against Ellenberger's raw power.

WKR Analysis: Condit will win this fight.  Now that is some in deep analysis.  Condit is better on his feet and on the ground.  Ellenberger's comfort zone is top position and Condit is a fighter who can be dangerous from his back.  There is not a position where Ellenberger has a clear advantage.  However, the fight is closer than people think.  Ellenberger has won 13 of 21 fights via KO/TKO and has not won a fight by submission in 14 fights and over 3 years.  He has the power and his striking is getting better.  Ellenberger might not be a top prospect, but he is a solid fighter, has a ton of experience, and he can finish a fight.  In the end though Condit is a better striker and if Ellenberger brings the fight to the ground (which he can) Condit has the ability to submit him.  Either way this is going to be an exciting fight as both fighters have never been knocked out and want to trade punches.  Expect a potential fight of the night as Condit takes a decision or submits Ellenberger if Jake's wrestling aggression gets the best of him.