UFC Fight Night 20 Preview: Gray Maynard vs. Nathan Diaz

Gray "The Bully" Maynard (8-0-0, 1 NC, 6-0-0, 1 NC UFC) versus Nathan Diaz (11-4-0, 6-2-0 UFC)

The Story So Far

These two co-headlined the last Ultimate Fight Night card in September, with Maynard earning a hard-fought win over the departing Roger "El Matador" Huerta, while Diaz was gifted a guillotine by "The Young Assassin" Melvin Guillard.

Following his win, Diaz asked for a Top 5 opponent, apparently believing that beating Guillard after back-to-back loses qualified him for a big-ish name fight. Interestingly enough, the UFC agreed with Nick's little brother, setting him opposite the undefeated Maynard.

A win for Maynard means a title shot against BJ Penn, which "The Prodigy" has hinted will happen in Abu Dhabi, but who knows. A win for Diaz means Frankie Edgar most likely faces Penn, while the Stockton, California native climbs back up the ladder. But if he beats the #1 contender, who is he going to call out next?

Oh - these two met before too, as Diaz defeated Maynard by submission in the semifinals of TUF 5, en route to winning the show and earning the six-figure contract.

SBN coverage of UFC Fight Night 20: Maynard vs. Diaz

Conventional Wisdom

Joe Stevenson used strong wrestling and a bigger, thicker frame to frustrate Diaz on The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale. Theoretically speaking, Maynard is a bigger, stronger, more powerful wrestler than Stevenson, so you would think the same formula would be employed and "The Bully" would begin preparations for BJ Penn.

However, Diaz already holds a win over Maynard, and while that was two-and-a-half years ago and Maynard has continued to progress, it is still enough to make you wonder if a different outcome is a definite occurrence.

WKR Analysis

Just as Maynard has continued to grow and hone his boxing, Diaz has changed approaches a little as of late, forgoing his outstanding jiu jitsu in favor of trading punches. The problem, of course, is that Diaz carries his 155 pounds on a six-foot frame, meaning a stiff jab can land him on the mat, as witnessed in the Guillard fight.

While Diaz will want to fight this bout standing, going to the ground is his best option, and one he'll have little choice in. Maynard is an outstanding wrestler who has used his size and power to dominate better competition than Diaz in the past. The added incentive of avenging his loss from The Ultimate Fighter - and knowing a win means a title shot - should push "The Bully" into his best effort to date.

Fun Fact

Maynard is now the Mayor of Tyson Griffin Island, a place where finishes go to die.

While his Xtreme Couture teammate has just one finish since his UFC debut, it came last time out and that's enough to buy him some time off the island. Maynard, however, is a decision machine and while that helps him pile up the wins, it sure doesn't do much for his "WOW Factor" and that is sometimes more important than wins and loses.

Diaz could win the Smack Talk World Title, and he and Nick are easily the tag team champions.

This fight proves his abilities, as beating a below-the-middle-of-the-pack Melvin Guillard earned him another main event, this time against the division's #1 contender. Well done, sir, well done.

SBN coverage of UFC Fight Night 20: Maynard vs. Diaz