UFC Fight Night 20 Preview: Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

Evan Dunham (9-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Efrain Escudero (12-0, 2-0 UFC):

The Story so Far:

Efrain Escudero is without question the more recognizable fighter.  The lightweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter season 8, Efrain used his superior wrestling to dominate the man once compared to Anderson Silva in the finale.  He followed that performance by KOing another former TUF contestant Cole Miller on the Spike Preliminary fights for UFC 103.  Efrain won an Arizona state wrestling championship as a senior and went on to wrestle at Pima Community College which is interesting because Drew Fickett, Jamie Varner, and Jesse Forbes all attended Pima at one time or another.  Between being on the show, his two appearances on Spike t.v., and his Mexican descent the UFC would love for Efrain to keep winning.  The fact that he has finished 10 of his 12 fights does not hurt matters either.

Evan Dunham is another undefeated lightweight prospect.  Dunham fights out of Xtreme Couture, but is originally an Oregon boy with some solid grappling and surprisingly refined striking.  Dunham is another finisher with only two of his nine fights going to decision.  Dunham has faced two solid grapplers so far in his two UFC bouts in Per Eklund and Marcus Aurelio.  He will get another grappler in Efrain, but Escudero probably has the most power and best wrestling of any of the fighters he has faced so far.  This will be a big test for Dunham and a solid opportunity for him to make a name for himself.

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Conventional Wisdom:

Efrain has the power, Dunham has the more developed striking, and both fighters are solid grapplers when they have top position.  Most experts see the outcome of this fight dependent on who is able to take top position or implement their game plan.  With Efrain's solid wrestling base the assumption is that he will be able to close the distance, secure the takedown, and walk away with the victory.  Currently he is riding about a -250 to -280 moneyline which makes him a rather substantial favorite.  The problem for Dunham is that strong wrestlers provide a poor mismatch because he will most likely end up working from the bottom against another ground fighter.

WKR Analysis:

Nothing about the conventional wisdom is incorrect, but they are not giving Dunham enough credit.  Yes, he prefers top position and against Efrain's takedowns he will end up on his back at least once during this fight.  However, I was very surprised with his striking in his last fight and his straight punches were able to keep Aurelio at bay for the majority of the fight.  As with many wrestlers Efrain has a tendency to throw wide punches and leaves himself open to get caught.  Dunham's striking may also prevent Efrain from closing the gap and securing a bevy of takedowns.  Efrain is and should be the favorite, but do not be surprised if Dunham emerges as a legitimate lightweight contender following Monday night.

Fun Fact:

According to Wikipedia Efrain Escudero is 13-0 so apparently they know something we don't.  I guess if you are a Wikipedia fan I would take Efrain with the win.