A Tale of Strategic Fallacies: Brock Lesnar and Roy Nelson

It was recently rumored by Bryan Alvarez at The Wrestling Observer that former UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar is asking for TUF 10 winner Roy Nelson as his next opponent, whom Brock believes to be a challenging opponent.  Not everyone agrees however, the beloved Jonathan Snowden of Bloody Elbow sees Lesnar as a bully:

Simply put, Brock is a bully. When backed into a corner his instinct isn't to take the hard path. It's to find prey he thinks he can conquer - and attack.

There's plenty more where that came from, but I must say, if Brock, who obviously does not take pleasure in being punched, wanted to take easier fights, it seems odd that he'd pick Roy Nelson who knocked out Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve before going three rounds against number one contender Junior dos Santos at UFC 117. I'm not here to debate if Lesnar is making the right move by passing up a rubber match with Frank Mir though, I was looking at Lesnar and Nelson recently, and realized that, although different in shape and attitude, they're quite similar in the fact that strategy was playing a key role in their most recent losses.

After the jump, we'll look back at Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez, and Roy Nelson vs. Junior dos Santos, to see where these men went wrong, and if they will continue to suffer from poor choices in the octagon when it comes to a potential fight between Lesnar and Nelson.

At UFC 117, not many pundits or fans were giving Roy Nelson much of a shot at beating the heavy handed Junior dos Santos.  I too thought Nelson was in deep water against the Brazilian, but one thing about "Big Country" is that he has a good "fight IQ".  Typically, strategy is not where Nelson comes up short, but in this fight, it was his downfall. 

Nelson attempted few shots throughout the fight, and it became apparent that he would be forced to stand with JDS.  This is where I presumed his strategy would become to "wall and stall" JDS, clinching, and dirty boxing against the cage.  It certainly wouldn't have been an easy task to keep the powerful JDS against the cage, but it would have served Nelson better than trading punches for three rounds.  One thing we did learn from Nelson in this fight, that is that the man can take a beating.  Some pointed to Nelson's KO loss to Arlovski as proof that JDS would finish him, but no such luck.  So, would Nelson fair differently  had he prepared to implement a different strategy against JDS?  Possibly.  He wouldn't have made any new fans if he held on to JDS for dear life, but after seeing the fight play out, we know Nelson would have been able to wade through most of the punches, and possibly secure the clinch, from there...who knows?

We're left with no answers, but only the question of, will Nelson fall victim to poor strategic choices should he meet Brock Lesnar in the near future?  Not likely, but Nelson may look to win big, knowing that Lesnar's yet to develop the ability to take a punch gracefully.  

Brock Lesnar's poor strategy against Cain Velasquez on the other hand, felt all too familiar, with Lesnar coming out extremely aggressive, then looking for a shot.  Throwing caution to the wind against Frank Mir lost him his UFC debut, and it certainly did him no favors in losing the UFC heavyweight title.  Lesnar found success being well paced, patient, and powerful, making Heath Herring look lost in their fight, then defeating Randy Couture, and then avenging his loss to Frank Mir.  The former champion was methodical, and it worked well for him.  Even when he was hurt against Shane Carwin, his patience allowed him to recover, and find his way to his feet before the first round ended.  From there, he didn't rush Carwin, he came out for the second round, waited, then took the shot, and submitted Carwin shortly after.

We saw a much more frantic Lesnar against Velasquez, for whatever reason.  Would Lesnar have won if he were the same, patient fighter that had taken the title?  Velasquez showed that he came in as ready as he ever would be to take that title from Lesnar that night, and I highly doubt any change of game plan would have led to a victory for Lesnar.  Regardless, he would have been far better served to return to his winning style, than using a style that could only be likened to an enraged viking with a few muay thai classes under his belt.  

If Brock Lesnar gets his wish, and does face Roy Nelson, strategy will be key for either man's success.  Lesnar has shown that he learns lessons, but may eventually throw caution aside.  Nelson has proven to be a smart fighter, but the knock out is always a possibility with hands like his, and a knock out of Brock Lesnar would certainly garner a bonus check.  I don't like this fight for Nelson.  Lesnar will surely look to recreate the successful strategy he used against Frank Mir in their second bout, and shut Nelson down on the ground with hard blows and top control.  Nelson won't be as strong as Lesnar, and although he is skilled on the ground, I'm not sure it will be enough to submit, or sweep Lesnar.  

To end, let me say that I would jump for joy should Lesnar/Mir III come first, as I will gladly pay top dollar to see Frank Mir get wrecked again.  That, and Lesnar asking for Nelson is in my opinion, the right choice for both parties.  Lesnar needs to rebuild, and reform his camp, and Nelson presents a perfect challenge for his amount of training an experience.  Tossing Lesnar right back in with contenders will only open windows that are better off left closed, for the UFC, and the former champion himself.  He's already been fed to the wolves, I'd like to see what could become of him if he were built up as Cain Velasquez was.  For Nelson, he's getting a dream match that will put him right into title contention.  Facing Brock Lesnar means money, and more money, means more Burger King, and more Burger King means a happy Roy Nelson.  Need I explain further?