Decisions on the rise? Let's get some better judging then!

Mike Chiappetta of MMA Fighting examined all the fights in the UFC after UFC 100 and compared the rate of decisions, (T)KO's and submissions to the previous one hundred events. He concludes that decisions are on the rise as 46% of the 130 bouts since UFC 100 ended on the judges score card. Compare that to just 30.9% of all previous UFC fights going the distance.

While this really shouldn't come as a surprise --the athletes and skill level of fighters today completely dwarfs what existed in the embryonic stages of the sport ten years ago-- it is a thought provoking conclusion. As the post-UFC 100 fights only make up 10% of the total data set, and with the monstrous changes within the sport, e.g., the Unified Rules, WKR would like to see a breakdown in eras, say intervals of a tenth of the total fights. That would paint a more detailed picture of what is presently occurring in MMA versus historical trends, i.e., comparing nine months of data to over ten years worth of data where there were significant changes in rules might not be the best way to understand statistical correlation.

Update: Mike Fagan has a better breakdown of the statistics as he accounts for the lack of lightweight fighters in 2005. Also, Fagan has annual statistics and division statistics giving a more accurate representation of the data.

The rise, even if superficial, of decisions highlights a much larger problem facing the sport of mixed martial arts--the state of judging. Last year was the year of the controversial decision, from a host of different judges in a variety of different venues. Most fans immediately think of Lyoto Machida vs. "Shogun" Rua as the worst decision of 2009. That title fight took place in California. Another main event fight where many believed the judges got it wrong was the Randy Couture-Brandon Vera fight in Manchester, England. Sherdog's "Fight of the Year" between Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson was also controversial as many observers had Cerrone, not Henderson winning the WEC interim lightweight title that night in Texas. 

It wasn't just marquee fights on a few cards. Preliminary fights such as Melvin Guillard and Gleison Tibau have resulted in head-scratching decisions. But we aren't even to the worst of it yet--the Virginia Athletic Commission. Some fighters are horrified to compete in the state and why shouldn't they be? The VAC and their judges are responsible for one of the worst decisions in MMA history not to mention sheer incompetency.

Even when the decisions are in line with the actual winner of the fight there are often judges who score the bouts in a mind-numbing manner, e.g., Glen Trowbridge.

If decisions are on the rise, as Chiappetta concludes, then the most pressing issue facing the sport is improving the quality of judging.

Some want to call the current situation a 'crisis in judging'. But that phrase is overkill as judges are humans and are fallible, just like the rest of rest. What we are dealing with though, is a 'crisis of consistency'. 

The criteria of judging is filled with vague concepts such as 'Octagon control' and judges rarely reward fighters with dominant submission attempts or those who sacrifice position for submission. Cecil Peoples, the bane of many MMA fans, essentially ignores kicks when scoring bouts.

The reform that is required is a consistent set of rules and guidelines that all MMA judges are required to follow, while removing vague ethereal concepts like 'Octagon control'. This needs to be coupled with significant education so judges are able to understand the complexity of the ground game.