UFC 110 Gambling Advice

If you have been reading this column in 2009 you know that I have officially defecated the bed sheet. That's right, I went 0-4 at UFC 109. So, let's try to turn things around!

If you bet on Cain Velasquez earlier you are happy
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (even) over Cain Velasquez (-130)
Cain opened up around +200 so if you were smart (like me) you laid a little money on that line hoping that people would come to their senses and the line would drop. Who would've thought that the line would swing back in the other direction. For the early bettors out there the new line is a great way to hedge your bets. Even if you didn't take the  early plunge Cain spends a lot of time on the ground, which is a risk against Nogueira.

The pick your heart wants you to make but your brain has second thoughts on
Wanderlei Silva (-150) over Michael Bisping (+120)
A beloved yet declining MMA legend versus the over-hyped, arrogant TUF product. It isn't hard to see why my heart is being pulled in the sentimental direction. Silva's recent slide (1-3 in the UFC and 1-5 in his past six fights) is reason enough for a smart bettor to lay money against the Brazilian. That being said, I just can't pick Bisping and look at myself in the mirror in the morning. Remember Matt Hamill!

The name "Cro Cop" died long ago
Ben Rothwell (+130) over Mirko Filipovic (-160)
This is a legacy line pure and simple. While I was a huge "Cro Cop" fan (back when Mirko was "Cro Cop") and I am clinging to hope that the fighter from 2006 will return. But Mirko has done nothing in the past two years to warrant him being favored so I am taking Rothwell. (Please god let this reverse jinx work).

Update: I guess that jinx really worked in a quasi-despicable manner. Rothwell is off the card and will be replaced by Anthony Perosh (10-5).

Half listening to the 'Injury Rule'
C.B. Dollaway (+170) over Goran Reljic (-210)
The injury rule states: "stay away from fights with participants coming off injuries" in other words don't bet on any fighter in the fight. So, why am I breaking my own rule? For those that don't know Reljic suffered a potentially career ending back injury in 2008 and is just now making his return. Plus Gornan is in the middle of a wrestling crash course. That is some ominous foreshadowing when Reljic is fighting C.B. Dollaway. Then again, C.B. is known to wet the bed so proceed at your own risk.

SBN coverage of UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez