"My belt is better than your belt!"

View full size photo »

Matt "The Terror" Serra (9-6, 6-6 UFC) vs. Frank "Twinkle Toes" Trigg (19-7, 2-4 UFC)

The Story So Far

Two veteran fighters in the twilight of their careers meet in a welterweight match both desperately need to win in order to stay relevant in the UFC's stacked 170-lb division.

Frank Trigg had been enjoying a four-fight win streak prior to making his return to the Octagon this past September after four years spent competing for other promotions. Unfortunately for "Twinkle Toes" he ran into a red-hot Josh Koscheck who spoiled his UFC homecoming by knocking him out in the first round. Immediately after the loss, reports circulated that Trigg had been unceremoniously cut by the UFC before they had a change of heart and decided to give him another shot.   

For Matt Serra, the biggest win of his career also happens to be his most recent. Hard to believe it's believe almost three years since "The Terror" defeated Georges St. Pierre in what still stands as the most shocking upset in UFC history. Since that fight, Serra coached a season of TUF, got destroyed by GSP in their UFC 83 rematch, and dropped a unanimous decision to Matt Hughes last May.

Conventional Wisdom

This can be considered a "loser leaves town" match since it's likely that whoever comes away with the loss will be cut from the UFC roster. There is also a general feeling that this fight is taking place about four years too late.

WKR Analysis

For some strange reason, I'm actually looking forward to this fight.

These two guys have very different skill-sets and bring different weapons into the cage. For Trigg, it's obvious that wrestling is his biggest strength. His excellent wrestling is complemented by slightly above average ground-and-pound and a good top control game. It's no secret that Trigg will look to push the pace, take Serra down to the mat and hold him there for three rounds.

The advantages that Serra brings into the cage are his heavy hands and BJJ grappling ability. Even though Serra has a wide base, he often gets taken down which could prove to be troublesome against an accomplished wrestler such as Trigg. Serra's best chance for victory is to swarm Trigg with punches as he no doubt has enough power to end the fight if he lands one of those bombs on the questionable chin of "Twinkle Toes".

Bottom line on this fight is that Serra has more ways to win than Trigg does. Although Trigg will be the physically larger man in the cage this Saturday night, he has never been known for his KO power or submission prowess. Trigg has been susceptible to the rear-naked choke in the past, if Serra is able to get him into a bad position on the ground, I wouldn't be surprised to see that exact finish play out again.   

Fun Fact

Despite being the first American to be awarded a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Renzo Gracie, Serra hasn't submitted an opponent since March of 2002.