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Melvin Guillard (22-8, 6-4 UFC) vs. Ronnys Torres (14-1, 0-0 UFC)

The Story So Far:

Melvin Guillard has had 10 fights in the UFC and been a member of the organization since The Ultimate Fighter Season 2 in 2005.  Guillard was previously on his longest win streak in the UFC (3) before losing to Nate Diaz in his usual fashion, submission.  Despite his experience in the cage, it was his lack of discipline hurt him in that fight.  Guillard was winning the fight with his power and striking, but took the bait from Diaz and took the fight to the floor.  This ended in a guillotine submission loss for Melvin.  This has been a problem for him as seven of his eight career losses have come via submission.  There is no doubt about it as his strength is his power in his hands.  Guillard is looking for a rebound win against a top prospect.  He has also enlisted the help of the amazing (I am very, very bias) Greg Jackson.

Ronnys Torres was a top prospect coming out of Brazil and was slated to face Melvin Guillard at Fight Night 18 in April 19.  Ronnys was then moved to Fight Night 19, but once again had to withdraw.  He now makes his UFC debut almost a year later against the man he was originally slated to face.  Torres has previously fought in Shooto and Jungle Fight before joining the UFC.  He also trains out of Nova Uniao (not sure how to do a tilde on word) with a fellow Brazilian some might have heard of.  A young scrapper by the name of Jose Aldo.  Torres is a well rounded fighter who finishes fights.  He packs a nice wallop and is definitely comfortable on the mat. 

SBN coverage of UFC 109: Relentless

Conventional Wisdom:

Guillard is a small favorite going into this fight.  Torres's one loss in his career is via KO and we know that Melvin has the power.  However, the line is probably in favor of Melvin due to different factors.  Torres is coming off a long injury layoff and cage rust is a definite possibility.  In addition, this is his first fight in the UFC and primetime jitters are a legitimate factor in fights.  These both go against Melvin who has fought twice in the last nine months and has 10 fights in the Octagon.  Adding to Melvin's favor is that Torres is not known for his off season work ethic.  For example, Torres is cutting 30 pounds to make weight for this fight.  Expect cardio to be a factor.  The expectation is that Melvin will try to keep the fight upright as he looks to land a big shot.  Although, you would be hard pressed to find someone who feels absolute about this happening.

WKR Analysis:

Another reason for the spread is the fact that more people know who Melvin is.  His fights in the UFC, his tendencies for knockouts, and his dyed hair make him a recognizable fighter.  The goal of a moneyline is to encourage equal betting on both sides; it is not a fair representation of who should win.  Torres is the more well rounded, more athletic, and more talented fighter.  He has a minor disadvantage on the feet compared to a noticeable advantage in the grappling department.  People do not know who he is and that is working in his favor.  Plus, Melvin has shown weaknesses in his takedown defense which may definitely come into play in this fight.  I cannot believe I am writing this because Guillard is training with Yoda, but assuming Torres comes in shape and lacks ring rust (no guarantee by any means) then expect it to be a long night (literally short though) for Melvin.  However, the longer the fight goes the better Melvin's chances get (yes, I just wrote that).

Fun Fact:

Melvin Guillard refused to accept that he is not Simon Phoenix.