UFC 109 Gambling Advice

Fresh off the lunacy of a giant parlay that had no chance of ever working it is time for a little more sober analysis of the odds at UFC 109.

The crazy underdog bet that might not be so crazy
Mark Coleman (+325) over Randy Couture (-525)
A lot of observers believe that this line is way too high in Couture's favor, but Randy is such a public commodity (he's Batman for crying out loud!) that it should come as no real surprise. But that doesn't change the fact that there are some question marks following Couture into this fight.

When Randy returned to the UFC he spoke about how his age would limit his activity. Couture mentioned that his body needed more recovery time and training camps needed to be longer and slower to maximize Couture's fighting time. In other words it took Randy 5 hours to do what it used to take him 2 hours. This was a very reasonable analysis on the part of Couture and we saw that general strategy used after he fought and lost to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91. Couture took 287 days off before returning at UFC 102 against Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. But since the Nogueira fight Randy appears to have abandoned the slow and steady in favor of three fights in five months (including the Nogueira fight and the upcoming Coleman fight Couture will have fought three times in 161 days). That is a high pace for any fighter let alone a 47 year old fighter.

How much work and stress can Randy's body really handle? His fight with Nogueira, while exciting, reminded me of two fighters fighting in molasses and Couture was dropped several times. Two months later Randy defeated Brandon Vera but the fight was controversial and many saw Vera winning it.  Despite of the outcome Couture took some serious damage from Vera's kicks and was dropped from a body kick (when was the last time you saw that?). The degradation of Randy's body began a long time ago (as it does with most humans) and the signs are there of someone quickly approaching the end. That being said, Couture is fighting Mark Coleman, an equally old fighter --he is forty-five versus Couture being forty-seven-- who is fighting on his last legs and has serious cardio issues. 

Coleman claims that this is his first true training camp and he has the benefit of working with Shawn Tompkins, one of the former coaches/trainers of Xtreme Couture. While Mark has had some serious bad luck of late the subtle signs exist for a Coleman upset and with the odds being so juicy perhaps he is worth a play.

Fight you should probably stay away from but the odds are just so pretty
Phillipe Nover (+115) over Rob Emerson (-145) 
Why should you stay away from this fight? Phillipe Nover had a seizure immediately before his last fight and was unable to compete. Not to mention Nover suffered a flash knockout to Kyle Bradley (some people thought the stoppage was too quick). Those are usually red flags to stay the hell away from a fighter. But Nover is fighting Rob Emerson. Am I the only one who remembers that Rob Emerson isn't very good? He is 8-8 for crying out loud! 

The veteran vs. the new guy
Ronnys Torres (+105) over Melvin Guillard (-135)
It is somewhat strange to think of Melvin Guillard as a veteran as he is only 26 but he has fought over thirty times--nine of which were inside the UFC. But Melvin has a horrible penchant of sticking his neck out there to be submitted (seven of his eight losses are due to submission) and Torres has an excellent Jiu-Jitsu base (five of his last seven wins came via submission). The only thing that gives me pause is that Torres is cutting thirty pounds. If he doesn't submit Guillard early he may be too tired to in later rounds. 

FIght I really want to bet but will probably chicken out on
Justin Buchholz (+285) over Mac Danzig (-365)
Do you trust Mac Danzig because I sure as hell don't. Danzig has lost three in a row and a loss here and Mac could be calling up Strikeforce or DREAM. I just don't like betting against a guy fighting for his job and especially when he is such a favorite.

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