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Chael Sonnen (24-10, 3-3 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (29-8, 8-2 UFC)

The Story So Far:

Sonnen actually fought in the UFC way back at UFC 55 before heading over to Bodog, then to the WEC, and finally headed back to the UFC after Zuffa folded the middleweight division in the WEC.  Chael is now ranked as a top 5 middleweight, according to USA Today/Bloody Elbow rankings, after wins against Dan Miller and Yushin Okami.  This followed up his return loss against Damian Maia.  Sonnen is not one to mince words or hold back any that goes into his head.  He truly believes he is better than Anderson Silva (due to the MMA transitive property) and has voiced his opinion about Silva very openly.  In fact, it has been his talking about Silva and other fighters that has provided most of the pre fight hype.  Everything said about Nate Marquardt has been respectful and appropriate.  A win here gives Chael a three fight win streak and most likely a chance to put his money where his mouth is against the champ.

Nate Marquardt is a King of Pancrase champion and a veteran of 39 professional fights.  In fact between Nate and Chael they have competed in 74 professional fights (only 34 behind Jeremy Horn).  Nate is currently undergoing the difficult task of earning a second title shot, which is even more difficult since he was thoroughly dominated the first time.  His only loss in the UFC outside of Anderson Silva was a controversial decision to Thales Leites where he lost a split decision despite being deducted two points during the fight.  He then followed that loss with three straight wins all via TKO or KO.  Many people forget that his base lies in grappling since he has turned into a solid, versatile striker.  Originally this number one contender fight was supposed to be against Dan Henderson, but either way Nate will get a title shot with a win.

SBN coverage of UFC 109: Relentless

Conventional Wisdom:

Conventional wisdom has Marquardt taking this fight.  The best odds you can find right now for Nate are at -370 so it is not considered a close bout by the oddsmakers.  Nate has better submissions, better striking, and finishes fights.  The longer this fight stays upright, the more opportunities Nate has to finish the fight.  Sonnen has not finished a fighter since before his WEC run so Nate will probably have the ability to be aggressive.  Sonnen is where Henderson would have been if it not for the contract issues and most people are expecting Silva/Marquardt II.

WKR Analysis:

People are seriously underestimating Chael Sonnen.  He may not finish fighters or be the most exciting, but he outwrestles almost everyone and controls fights.  There is no way this fights ends without at least one takedown from Sonnen.  He is a legit top ten middleweight and will have a solid UFC career this time around.  However, people are not overestimating Marquardt.  Marquardt can finish the fight on the mat and on his feet.  He is physically strong enough and possesses a solid wrestling base to escape.  Sonnen has had the propensity to leave limbs out which will be a mistake against Marquardt.  In addition, Nate is a more versatile striker and does not have to worry about getting KOd by Chael.  This is Marquardt's fight to lose and I do not see a decision loss in his future.

Fun Fact:

Chael Sonnen talking.