UFC 109: Relentless Predictions

Main Event: Light Heavyweight/Geriatric: Randy “The Natural” Couture vs. Mark “The Hammer” Coleman

In a fight that exists seemingly only to make Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz feel young, this card’s main event boasts the first ever matchup between UFC Hall of Famers in Couture and Coleman. If you look at the stats for this fight, it is actually shocking how similar these two are, with regard to reach, age, height, weight, and record. Both are legends in the sport, with Coleman winning both the first UFC heavyweight championship as well as the first PRIDE tournament, and with Couture fighting the top competition consistently since 2005, only taking short retirement breaks to return to Valhalla and feed, before terrorizing a weight division of his choosing again. The difference maker in this fight is obvious: cardio. The fact that Couture has it is a given, with Coleman, not so much. I’m sure Coleman trained hard for this fight, and his cardio looked much improved in his upset win over Stephen Bonnar at UFC 100, but it’s not going to be enough here. Couture’s hands are far superior to the few, heavy volleys that Coleman favors in every fight, and I doubt Coleman will be able to consistently take and hold down Couture to win a decision here. It won’t be long before Couture picks Coleman apart with crisp boxing, and wears him out with his infamous clinch game against the cage. This fight will stay competitive until Coleman starts breathing heavy, after that, it is only a matter of time before Couture gets his hand raised.

Couture by Technical Knockout, Third Round

Middleweight: Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

In a match up to determine the next in line for a shot at Anderson Silva’s crown after Vitor Belfort, Marquardt faces off against unlikely contender and World’s Most Dangerous Real Estate Agent, Chael Sonnen. Sonnen has elbowed his way into the middleweight title picture after a surprising victory over Yushin Okami at UFC 104, relying upon his Greco-Roman skills and trying to forget about how he wrestled himself into a triangle choke against Demian Maia. This fight is pretty cut and dry. Marquardt is vastly more talented standing up and on the ground compared to Sonnen. Chael may have the edge in wrestling, but that’s the only place he will have the advantage. Now, I actually believe that Marquardt’s striking will win him the day here, but I hope he ends up submitting Sonnen, because watching him squeal awkwardly when caught in a submission (See his fights against Babalu, Jeremy Horn or Paulo Filho) is extremely entertaining to me.

Marquardt by Submission, Second Round

Welterweight: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

Because Paulo Thiago hasn’t fought every welterweight at American Kickboxing Academy, he now will face Mike Swick. Thiago is 2-1 in his UFC campaign, and has made use of his takedowns and ground game in the past, which I doubt he will be able to do against Swick. Swick is notoriously difficult to take down, just watch his fight against a much bigger Yushin Okami at UFC 69. Even though he has no jab to take advantage of his reach, which is ridiculous for welterweight, Swick’s more polished standup game will pick Thiago apart over the course of three, long rounds. Look for Swick to either finish it late in the third, or take a judge’s decision. Who’s next out of AKA for Thiago? Herschel Walker? We’ll keep you updated.

Swick by Unanimous Decision

Middleweight: Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

Two middleweights looking to shake off losing efforts collide in this matchup. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably seen Maia eat a punch from Nate Marquardt that hit him like a bus. Miller is coming off of a hard-fought decision loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 98. Recently, Jim Miller was recently awarded his BJJ black belt, but this is not the fight to test it out. Maia still probably has nightmares about that punch from Marquardt, so I doubt he’s going to delay taking this one to the mat however he can. From there, it’s just a matter of time before Maia collects another Submission of the Night Award at Miller’s expense.

Maia by Submission, Second Round

Welterweight: Frank Trigg vs. Matt Serra

In a matchup between two fighters struggling to find relevance in the crowded UFC welterweight division, Trigg and Serra meet in an interesting 170-pound scrap. This is not a good fight for Frank Trigg. Even though he should be fighting at lightweight, Serra is incredibly strong for the weight class, and has mercury in his hands. Combine that with his top-notch ground game, and Frank’s nasty habit of falling into submissions and power punches, and this looks like a solid win for Serra.

Serra by Submission, Second Round

Lightweight: Melvin Guillard vs. Ronys Torres

The key to this fight is whether or not Guillard can land that big punch before Torres wrestles him down and subs him. I’m going for the upset and saying that he won’t.

Torres by Submission, First Round

Lightweight: Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz

In a true do or die scenario, Mac Danzig really needs a win here to stay employed with Zuffa. Luckily, unless Danzig is fighting Hayato Sakurai again, his chin is strong enough for him to close the distance and get the takedown, where a submission against Buchholz’s porous ground game should follow relatively quickly. However, with the prospect of being the first TUF winner to be cut by the promotion if he loses, Danzig may likely play this one on the safe side, avoiding risks and taking a judge’s nod and a much needed win to get his career back on track again.

Danzig by Unanimous Decision

Lightweight: Phillipe Nover vs. Rob Emerson

Since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter, which left everyone drooling over his potential, Nover has been a disappointment to put it lightly. Still winless in the UFC, Nover needs to right the ship quickly, and it simply doesn’t look good when his opponent is the very underrated Rob Emerson. Another TUF alum, Emerson has a deceiving record for a fighter of his talent, and while he will likely never be a threat in the title picture, he has proven a serviceable gatekeeper at the middle of the division. The question is really if Nover is ready, both physically and mentally for this fight. If he is on, then he should be able to exploit Emerson’s weaknesses and claim the victory. If not, then his worth to the promotion will be brought into serious question. With a new camp and a more serious approach to his training, I see Nover taking a convincing, if pedestrian, decision win.

Nover by Unanimous Decision

Light Heavyweight: Brian Stann vs. Phil Davis

Phil Davis enters the UFC with only four fights in his MMA career. While all of those fights were victories, the question of whether he is ready for the big show is quite significant, especially against Brian Stann. While bearing little resemblance to the knockout artist he was in the WEC, Stann may still be the first opponent to test Davis’ chin. As long as Davis survives long enough to close the distance and expose both Stann’s poor takedown defense and underdeveloped ground game, he should be able to advance to 5-0 with an exhibition of double legs and ground and pound to secure a unanimous nod.

Davis by Unanimous Decision

Heavyweight: Tim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer

This fight pits a pair of UFC 102 losers against each other in a battle to move past each one’s embarrassing defeat. Hague was on the losing end of Todd Duffee’s record-setting seven second KO record, while Tuchscherer took a beating from an angry Gabriel Gonzaga on the same night. That being said, the key to Hague winning this fight is cardio, and whether or not he can keep Tuchscherer from getting the better of a three-round hugging contest. Expect Hague to wade through some trouble early on to respond with a late TKO finish once Tuchscherer’s gas tank runs dry.

Hague by Technical Knockout, Round Three

Heavyweight: Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran

Being the brawler in a brawler vs. grappler exchange isn’t always the best place to be. When the grappler happens to be a Gracie, it’s never the best place to be. I don’t see this fight lasting long once it hits the mat, and I certainly don’t see Beltran escaping the first round without surrendering the tap. Gracie by whatever he wants.

Gracie by Submission, First Round