Worlds Collide-Aoki/Melendez In-Depth

While the most talked about matchup on Strikeforce’s April 7th show is the middleweight title fight between Jake Shields and Dan Henderson, a fight is on the card which represents a crucial point in the future of both the American promotion as well as MMA in Japan. That fight is the lightweight title match between Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Gilbert Melendez and DREAM Lightweight Champion Shinya Aoki.

Aoki, one of Japan’s most recognizable fighters and an absolute wizard on the ground, takes on a serious test against Melendez, a fellow PRIDE veteran looking to make his first title defense since wresting the belt away from Josh Thompson in December. Aoki has been vocal recently about the superiority of Japanese MMA over that seen in America, and now has the chance to prove it. This also marks the highest-profile matchup involving the alliance between Strikeforce and DREAM, with two champions meeting with the Strikeforce title at stake.

While Aoki seems to be under less pressure with his belt safe, he needs to be on his A game here against a top tier lightweight like Melendez in both his debut fighting in the US as well as his first fight in the cage. While he has stated that the cage will not be an issue and that he has studied it exhaustively, Aoki will definitely need to make adjustments in this new environment. For all we know, the cage may benefit his style, we simply do not know yet. He will also have to adjust to the noise issue. It is a fact that fighting in Japan sounds like fighting in a library; the crowd is silent and very educated, only cheering when a significant event occurs in the match. In Strikeforce, however, the crowd will be screaming from the onset throughout the entire fight. Aoki will need to adjust to how he hears his corner, and with Aoki being as emotional a fighter as he is, it is unknown just how this will affect him.

This is all routine for Melendez, who can most certainly claim the edge in this fight when it comes to the standup and really needs to keep it there in order to win. Bear in mind he has never been stopped in a fight, by either strikes or submission, with his only losses coming by way of decision. And while he has only a single submission win to his credit, he has a highly underrated ground game combined with competent wrestling skills.

It’s pretty cut and dry what each fighter needs to do here in order to win this fight. Aoki needs to avoid getting his somewhat questionable chin smashed in the opening exchange, get inside on Melendez, and either utilize his skills with trip takedowns or simply pull guard to get the fight to the mat. If he can succeed in this, his probability of winning skyrockets. There are very, very few fighters who are able to escape from Aoki’s ground game intact, especially if he manages to gain top position. If Aoki wins this fight, it will be either by submission early, or a decision.

Melendez, on the other hand, simply needs to stay upright here. Every minute he stays on his feet, frustrating Aoki by picking him apart with striking, his stock rises. Melendez seems to have the inverse possible results as Aoki in my opinion, and will either notch a devastating knockout win early in the match or frustrate Aoki en route to a decision victory.

This is a huge fight for both fighters. Melendez is looking to cement himself as the top lightweight in Strikeforce and send a message to all contenders that he is holding on to the belt for a long time. Aoki has placed the nation of Japan on his back, fighting to establish not only himself, but his country as the premier source for MMA in the world. Don’t overlook this one, it has all the potential to be one of the best fights you will see this year.