UFC on Versus Preview: Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello

Cheick Kongo (14-6, 7-4 UFC) vs. Paul Buentello (27-11, 3-2 UFC):

The Story so Far:

Kongo was on the brink of title contention and then lost two straight fights to top 5 heavyweights in Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir so the UFC decided to give him a win.  If it was not evident watching his fights, Kongo comes from a Kickboxing and Muay Thai background.  Fortunately for him he has effectively transferred his striking abilities into the sport of MMA as nine of Kongo's 14 wins come via TKO or KO.  Unfortunately for Cheick he has not developed a ground game and remains a one dimensional fighter who cannot beat any decent wrestlers.  His inability to keep the fight vertical or fight off his back has prevented his jump into the top tier of MMA heavyweights.

Lucky for Kongo, Buentello is a fellow striker.  Paul may not be as polished as Kongo, but definitely has the power in his fists.  Buentello is a veteran of the sport having fought, and lost, for the UFC and Strikeforce Heavyweight Championships in the past.  Buentello has racked up 17 victories through the exciting TKO/KO.  He also has not had a submission victory since his previous UFC run in 2005.  Buentello started his second stint with the UFC losing a Majority decision to grappler Stefan Struve.  Paul has stated that he plans to once again stand and trade despite facing a one dimensional fighter in Kongo.

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Conventional Wisdom:

If you have not realized this through my quite obvious recap, this is Kongo's fight to lose.  He is one of, in not THE, top striking heavyweights in the world.  That is his wheel house where he has power, speed, and accuracy.  He has defeated better strikers than Paul Buentello in the past and this should not be much different.  Cheick is a -365 favorite so conventional wisdom is leaning toward a decision for Kongo.  The fact the Paul showed no defense in his last fight against Stefan Struve is not a good indicator of things to come.

WKR Analysis:

Paul is good ole Texas boy and when he comes to fight, he comes to fight.  I do not believe he will try and take this fight to the ground, which means Kongo will be victorious.  However, playing devil's advocate you could make a case for Paul.  While Mir did not KO Kongo, he did clip him and send him to the canvas.  Paul has just as much power and sending Kongo down (not out) could force the fight to the mat.  Paul is a much more experienced grappler and actually has nine submission victories to his name.  Also, if Kongo is getting the better of the standing that may change Buentello's mind as he forces the fight to the mat.  In addition, due to issues with AKA, Buentello has switched camps and has actually been training with Grudge Training in Denver.  Based off the UFC's last trip to the Mile High City, this may play an important role.

Hey, maybe Kongo will do a Hardonk repeat and eliminate his opponent's striking by putting him on his back.  For someone will such horrific takedown defense, his takedown offense is not as embarrassing.  Maybe we will see a ground and pound approach from Kongo.  Either way it is probably another route to victory for him.

Fun Fact:

I am so sure Kongo will win, that I am definitely going to be sticking my foot in my ass when Buentello destroys him.  That will be awkward.