UFC on Versus Preview: Jon "Bones" Jones vs. Brandon "The Truth" Vera

Jon "Bones' Jones (9-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Brandon "The Truth" Vera (11-4, 7-4 UFC):

The Story so Far:

Bones Jones is arguably the top light heavyweight prospect in MMA.  At this point it would probably be unfair to still consider him a prospect when in fact he is more a rising star (yes, there is a difference).  Using his freak athleticism and unique style he has amassed a 9-1 mark with that one loss coming via a disqualification against Matt Hamill in his last fight.  However, most see an asterisk next to that loss as Jones dominated Hamill and only lost due to a 12-6 elbow.  The scary part is that he is still very raw and has only one fight under his belt working with a top camp.  A win here solidifies Jones's status as Brandon Vera will be his toughest test so far.

Vera can probably relate to Jones in one way being that he was once considered the next big thing in MMA.  Vera went from top prospect, to bust, to ehh.  Vera began his UFC career on a four fight win streak that was capped off by the dismantling of Frank Mir in a little more than a minute.  That followed by two losses and an uninspiring debut at light heavyweight was responsible for Vera loosing that sparkling glow.  The MMA community has stopped expecting the Vera of old to come back and he probably has solidified himself as a talented light heavyweight, but not someone who will challenge for the title.  In Vera's last fight he lost a controversial decision to Couture and a couple fights before that he lost a split decision against Keith Jardine.  Vera's only two losses at light heavyweight were incredibly close and he still has the same Muay Thai ability that was once there.  So, sleeping on Brandon Vera would be a mistake that would probably leave his opponent, well sleeping.  A win here might also add a little shine to the future of Brandon Vera.

SBN coverage of UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones

Conventional Wisdom:

Jones has yet to experience a problem in the UFC and is flying through steadily improving competition.  That coupled with Vera's lackluster performances have the betting lines somewhere around -240 for Jones.  What is seen as the potential problems for Jones are the possibilities of the clinch or him being put on his back.  Brandon has an excellent clinch game and Jones is relatively untested working off his back.  However, most Jones supporters would argue (probably with actual validity) that Jones's reach, speed, power, and awkward style will prevent Vera from closing the distance without taking damage.  In addition, Jones slammed Matt Hamill with ease and Hamill has better traditional wrestling than Vera.  The overall belief is that Jones is too explosive and too talented for Vera to capitalize on his youth.  Adding another training camp with Greg Jackson's camp will also limit the mistakes coming from Jones.

WKR Analysis:

To be fair I am definitely man crushing on Jones and I do think this is his fight to lose.  Nothing from the conventional wisdom is incorrect, but that does not mean it is without fault.  Something I have not seen a lot of, but I think may be the most important aspect of the fight for Brandon Vera is the pace of the fight.  Vera was very exciting at the start of his career and has taken heat for his lack of ability to pull the trigger recently, but I think that may help him on Sunday night.  Vera is large light heavyweight, has a strong clinch game, and can use these skills to control the pace of the fight.  Forcing Jones into a slow and methodical fight would limit Jones's ability to use his athleticism and reduce his ability to explode (yea I know, that is kind of the same thing).  It may not be the most exciting decision, but I think the best course of action for The Truth is force a slow pace and use a methodical approach to take the fight.

Fun Fact:

Well, not really fun, but more interesting.  In case you had not heard already, Vera was held at gun point alongside Lloyd Irvin and Irvin's family prior to his fight against Keith Jardine.  Pretty scary stuff and pretty dumb criminal, seriously of all the houses you choose.