Fight Night 21 Preview: Roy Nelson vs. Stefan Struve

Fight Night 21 Co-Main Event: Roy Nelson (14-4) vs. Stefan Struve (19-3)
Odds: Nelson (-300), Struve (+250)
Fun Fact: Nelson defeated Frank Mir via "belly bump". God I love Wikipedia.

Zak Woods: I hate this match-up.

Typically when two fighters with similar skill sets, say judo, fight one another, their skill sets cancel each other out. The results are usually aesthetically displeasing fights.

For Struve-Nelson both fighters have strong jiu-jitsu backgrounds meaning this fight will ultimately be decided on its feet. In that regard Roy Nelson is more technically sound. Just look at what dos Santos did to Struve or better yet Stefan's flat footed punches against Paul Buentello.

Say what you will about Roy Nelson's physique, he is solid heavyweight and he should win the right to get knocked out by Junior dos Santos.

Zach Krantz: Zak, we have talked about this before in that this is a bad match up decision by Joe Silva. When Nelson beats Struve it will essentially do very little. A win over Struve does little for Nelson in beating named opponents and a loss for Struve is not a big deal because he is so young and nowhere near contention anyways. This is all assuming Nelson wins, which based on the match up is a solid assumption. Nelson has more power and Struve has no striking defense. I also do not see Struve getting this fight to the mat, unless Nelson deems it necessary.

And then we find out he gets dos Santos with a win over Struve. So, bully for me. I guess this is big fight for Nelson as a win jumps into the top tier of the division (or at least the opportunity to fight the top level).

Zak Woods: Nelson vs. dos Santos would definitely be an opportunity for Nelson to get to the top tier.

We may be getting ahead of ourselves but I do think a Nelson-dos Santos fight is interesting in the regard that it could be the first real ground test for Junior. Roy was able to give Andrei Arlovski fits on the mat before the referee stepped in and I could see a similar result in the event of a dos Santos-Nelson fight.

Perhaps we shouldn't jinx this eventual fight.

Zach Krantz: Definitely getting ahead of ourselves and we definitely screwed this fight for Nelson, but I agree. It would be a very interesting fight for dos Santos because we would probably see him on the ground. Very curious to see that because we might finally get to see him work down there.

Nick Becker: Great points made by the both of you. Now allow me to add my $.02.   We know that Struve and Nelson have excellent jiu-jitsu skills and since no one is expecting a Sakuraba/Newton level of grappling wizardry; I have to agree that this one will end on the feet. In that respect, Nelson is the definite favorite. Struve has shown absolutely nothing to make me believe he can hold his own in a striking battle against top-flight competition as his stand-up lowlights include being blown out by dos Santos as well as getting posterized by Buentello.   Nelson on the other hand, impressed the hell out of me with his perfectly-placed, one-punch KO of Brendan Schaub -- who is no pushover. I really disliked Nelson's arrogance and persona on TUF but there's no question that he has the skills to be a future contender.

I have to disagree with you Zach and say that this is actually pretty good match-making in my mind. They always build TUF winners up slowly and since Struve has a nice winning streak going (read: is not a can), this fight has a nice upside for Nelson if he emerges victorious. Same goes for Struve who finds himself fighting in the co-main event of the TUF 11 kick-off card and has a decent amount of name recognition because every single one of his UFC fights thus far has ended up making the PPV broadcast. If Struve wins, that makes four-in-a-row and ups his profile even higher.   This is a very important fight for both men and it'll be especially interesting to see what the UFC does with Nelson -- win or lose. If Nelson pulls out the win, I would match him up against either Junior dos Santos or Cheick Kongo. If he loses, I say do the Rothwell rematch.

Zak Woods: I think you are right about the merits of this fight in regards to the heavyweight ladder.

But that doesn't alter my opinion that this fight is going to be an ugly boxing affair and fans who dislike Roy due to his TUF 10 persona (Dana White is not impressed with Roy's performance).

Watch Struve's feet in this fight because if he is throwing flat footed punches while standing like a statue then Nelson should be able to get the better of the stand-up. 

Zach Krantz: I do retract my bad match up statement a little because when I made it I was under the impression that the win would not do much for Nelson. Struve is not a can, but Nelson is a clear favorite. However, with the rumor flying around that Nelson gets dos Santos with a win then the fight has significant meaning for him.

However, I do disagree with the comment regarding TUF winners. Nelson is not your typical TUF winner. I am not saying throw him against Velasquez right away, but this is a man who has faced the top in the world before and was a huge favorite going into the show, not a green, but talented fighter. With a win here getting dos Santos I like the pace they have put him on, I am just surprised they are.

Tape Watching: Roy Nelson vs. Andrei Arlovski

Andrei Arlovski vs. Roy Nelson EliteXC
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