Bellator XVIII Preview

Ignoring the fact that Jay Silva is in a "Super" fight, we have another solid thursday night of fights coming.  Former Olympic Judoka (Hector Lombard) and Wrestler (Joe Warren) are competing and we have another top featherweight prospect (Patricio "Pitbull" Freire) on display.

Non Title Super...Uh, Not Super Fight:

Hector Lombard: -1150 (Bodog) vs. Jay Silva: +750 (SportsBook)

Unfortunately we are not going to get the match up we all wanted, but never expected to get.  Paulo Filho is unable to fight due to Visa issues, but who really knows at this point.  There is no point dwelling too much what could have been so let us move on to the fight we will see.

A fight with a -1150 moneyline.  You read that correct, if you bet $1150 on Hector Lombard you would win $100.  That is freaking insane, but there are many reasons for that line.  Ignoring the facts that Lombard is a much better fighter, Silva is taking this fight on short notice, Silva just went 0-2 in the UFC, this is also a horrible style match up for Jay Silva.  Lombard is a former Olympic Judo Competitor, but does not choose to take the fight to the mat.  Similar to some wrestlers, Lombard uses his Judo to keep the fight upright and uses his power to finish fights.  What does make Lombard so dangerous is that he is also a black belt in jiu-jitsu, so he is far from afraid of heading to the mat.

Almost no one has the power to match Lombard so the path to victory is either picking him apart with technical striking or a superior ground game and strong takedowns.  Unfortunately for Silva, he has neither.  This should end up being a showcase fight for Hector.

However, despite a 25-3 record Lombard is relatively untested.  Lombard is 17-0-1 in his last 18 fights, but his best wins are against James Te-Huna (2007) and Jared Hess in last year's final.  Silva did fight twice in the UFC and has some talent.  Minus 1150 is too much and even though I expect Lombard to win, Silva is a solid value bet.

Featherweight Tournament: Second Round

Joe Warren: -220 (SportsBook) vs. Georgi Karakhanyan: +190 (BetOnline)

Any Joe Warren fight involves a simple strategy for both.  Joe is a former Olympic wrestler who looks to take every fight to the ground and obtain top position.  Georgi will do what he can to prevent those takedowns or work submissions from the bottom.

Despite eight of his 13 wins coming via submission, Karakhanyan has the ability to finish a fight on his feet.  Just ask first round competitor Bao Quach.  Warren might end up being a stud in the future, but he definitely has some work cut out for him.  His striking is limited and his submission defense needs work.  He had to power his way out of a few submissions in his first round victory over Eric Marriott.

Despite Warren's ability to dictate fight location I like Georgi with the minor upset.  He has more methods to finish the fight and I do not think Joe can capitalize on Georgi's mistake when on his feet.

Patricio Freire: +120 (six different locations) vs. Wilson Reis: -125 (Bodog)

Grappler vs. Grappler, do we have a chess match coming our way or a sloppy brawl.  Reis is a jiu-jitsu fighter with his only career loss coming from last year's Bellator Champion, Joe Soto.  Reis also looked very strong in his first round match up against former WEC fighter Shad Lierley.

Freire is a top featherweight prospect coming out of Brazil who is sporting a perfect 13-0 record so far.  He made quick work of William Romero in round 1 via heel hook.  Different than Reis though, Freire has four victories coming way of KO/TKO and has the ability to finish the fight on the feet.

Reis has faced tougher competition, is a more well known name, but this is essentially a pick em in my book.  To be fair, I am buying heavy on the Pitbull as a future star, but I like him in this fight.  Reis has the better wrestling, but Freire can work from his back and can finish the fight on his feet.  I doubt Reis can submit the Pitbull even though he could probably pull off a decision win through top position, but I put my money down on the Pitbull.

 SBN coverage of Bellator XVIII