Bellator XIX Preview

Non Title Super Fight:

Joe Soto: -400 (BetUS) vs. Diego Saraiva: +385 (BetCRIS)

The odds vary quite a bit with this fight as Soto's odds range from -400 to -535 and Saraiva's odds range from +250 to +385.  A significant factor is that neither fighter is incredibly well known.  The betters can influence the fight line and there is not a strict consensus across the board. 

Soto was a surprise last year as he took the Featherweight Belt and remains undefeated at 8-0.  Saraiva is 18-8-1, but he is undefeated at featherweight with all eight losses coming from lightweight fights.  He also went 0-3 in the UFC losing to Dustin Hazelett, Jorge Gurgel, and Jeremy Stephens. 

Deigo definitely prefers fighting on the mat with 12 of his 15 finishes coming way of submission.  In addition he has never been finished (KO or submission) which is even more impressive considering the grapplers he fought (Hazelett, Gurgel, Ben Henderson). 

However, Soto is a more well rounded fighter and his strong wrestling pedigree allows him to keep this fight standing.  In addition, Joe has already beat pure grapplers in Bellator such as Wilson Reis.  The common belief is that Diego cannot get the fight to the mat and even if he does there is no guaranteed submission.  This should be Joe's fight to win, but at +385 the value is there to bet on Diego.  Do not expect a 7 second KO from this Bellator champion.  Best guess, UD victory for Joe Soto.

Welterweight Tournament: Second Round

Ben Askren: -535 vs. Ryan Thomas: +385

The rematch to end the shit talking.  In case you are just turning into Bellator, Thomas already lost to Askren in the first round.  However, the ending was highly controversial as Thomas did not tap and was awake when the ref stopped the fight.  However, Ryan was a late replacement to fight Jacob McClintock and defeated "Tick Tock" in the first round to get his rematch.

Askren is a typical wrestler turned MMA fighter.  He relies on takedowns and top position while he develops his striking.  This is not a knock on him, he is just raw.  However, he was an AMAZING wrestler, Olympic amazing.  The gameplan remains the same here as he does not want to end up on his back or stay too long on his feet.  If he can get top position the fight should be his.

Thomas and Askren are attempting to talk some shit, but I get the feeling it is to sell the fight.  Thomas does not think he lost and Askren is just annoyed the decision is still an issue.  Prior to the choke/crank Thomas was not getting worked and was not making it easy for Ben.  He is definitely a better striker and possesses decent power in his hands.

Despite causing a few problems for Askren what people seem to forget is that even if he did not tap, he was in a horrible spot.  Askren is too good a wrestler and Thomas is not dangerous enough off his back to cause too many problems.  As long as Askren is not overaggressive and controls Thomas then this should be his fight to lose.  However, there is no way I am laying money on Ben at -535.  Definitely better value bet with Thomas.

Dan Hornbuckle: -450 (BetUS) vs. Steve Carl: +385 (BetCRIS)

I am sorry to keep harping on the betting odds, but the fact that Hornbuckle is less of a favorite than Ben Askren is insane.  Thomas is relatively better than Carl and Hornbuckle is relatively better than Askren.  It is ridiculous.  Who bets on Steve Carl at only +385 when they can get Ryan Thomas or Diego Saraiva with the same odds.

There is a decent sized group of people that believes Steve Carl lost his first round decision to Brett Cooper.  One of those people, Steve Carl, who said the result surprised him.  The fight was incredibly exciting and in reality it could have gone either way, but nothing he showed makes me believe that he can defeat Hornbuckle.  There is no way he can take Hornbuckle on the feet.  His chin is alright, but Hornbuckle is too long, too accurate, and too dangerous.  His gameplan is probably taking the fight to the mat, but Hornbuckle is far from a slouch there either. 

Maybe I am overselling Dan Hornbuckle and this is probably not the most impartial preview, but I am fully sold on Hornbuckle and have not seen enough from Steve to even put him close yet.  He seems like a stand up guy, has a fan friendly background, and I wish him success in the future, but I believe Carl is just too overmatched. 

Hornbuckle is going to earn some name recognition stateside pretty soon so I recommend putting down money on him before this happens.  I know I will.

SBN coverage of Bellator XIX