Bellator Finals Previews: All Tournaments

I am on my way to Pittsburgh so the preview is up a little early this week (I'm sure you are all going crazy).  Pat Curran took a controversial decision in the first final of the season.  Now up we have former Olympic Wrestler Ben Askren taking on rising prospect Dan Hornbuckle.  With Askren's background and Hornbuckle's finishing ability this is probably the most hyped final match up of the season. 

Well, on to the finals previews.  We will start with today's welterweight bout and the other match ups are after the jump.

Welterweight Final: Ben Askren (5-0) vs. Dan Hornbuckle (21-2):

The Fighters:

            While the outcome of this match up is up for debate, the pace and style of the fight is almost set in stone.  In case you are unaware by now, Ben Askren is a former Olympic wrestler who is relatively new to the sport of MMA.  Not surprisingly he uses his takedowns to gain top control and try to smother his opponents.  Despite the decision against Ryan Thomas in the second round, Askren has finished a good amount of his opponents, primarily through submissions.

            However, I am very skeptical that he can submit Dan Hornbuckle.  Hornbuckle (a.k.a. scariest/craziest active fighter) has had a solid MMA career and he sports a record of 21-2, but it was not until his violent KO over Akihiro Gono at Sengoku 9 that got him his first mainstream notice.  He is definitely a great striker due to his versatility, accuracy, and length, but he is also a very dangerous grappler.  He has finished 20 of his 21 opponents and those finishes are split 10/10 between submissions and KO/TKOs.

The Fight:

            Askren's strength is Hornbuckle's biggest weakness.  Dan Hornbuckle is a solid striker and grappler, but his wrestling/takedown defense is definitely not on the level of Askren.  Ben will without a doubt be able to take the fight to the mat and I suspect this is what he will do.  It is a big advantage to dictate where the fight takes place and that advantage lies with Askren.  I continue to hear people reference Askren's lack of ability to control Thomas as a downfall in this fight.  However, there are two things to consider in regards to the scrambles.  One, this is how Askren wrestled in college (as I have been informed, not seen first hand) and he is plenty used to the scrambles.  Also, this is a finals match up so elbows are legal.  This will provide Ben with more close quarter offense and not require him to create space to attack.

            Despite the above, I still believe this is Hornbuckle's fight to lose.  Different than many MMA jiu-jitsu practitioners, Hornbuckle is able to attack off his back.  Both first round submission victories in this tournament came from his back.  He simply has too many ways to finish a fight and Askren is not on his level yet.  Whether the fight heads to the mat (most likely) or Ben keeps it upright (doubtful) Hornbuckle is the finisher.  The only aspect that would provide me cause for concern is Askren's ability to use elbows in this fight.  He will obtain top position and Hornbuckle usually is willing to take strikes while working submissions.  If Ben can land some major blows while Hornbuckle works off his back it could be a game changer.  In the end though Askren will get his first loss and Hornbuckle will move on to fight Lyman Good.

SBN coverage of Bellator XXII

Featherweight Final: Patricio Freire (14-0) vs. Joe Warren (4-1)

The Fighters:

            This fight has a very similar makeup compared to the welterweight final and that is primarily due to Joe Warren.  Warren is another Olympic level wrestler who is relatively new to the new sport of MMA.  Unlike Askren though, Warren jumped in the deep end intermediate level of the pool instead of fighting scrubs with his first fights.  His first fights were in the dream featherweight tournament where he beat MMA veterans Chase Beebe and Kid Yamamoto before getting submitted by Bibiano Fernandes.  Warren is more a stereotypical wrestling convert than Askren.  At this point in his career he lacks significant finishing ability, but has a solid top game focused on strong control and smothering opponents.

            Patricio Freire is a top ranked prospect coming out of Brazil who has lived up to the hype so far.  Primarily a jiu-jitsu practitioner, he separates from the pack because he is not completely inept on his feet.  This skill set was put on display in his second round decision win over Wilson Reis.  Reis is an elite jiu-jitsu fighter, but it was Freire's takedown defense and striking that made the difference.  Despite adequate striking ability his main skill set is on the mat and that is where he prefers to be.  A win here would set up a match against Season 1 Featherweight winner Joe Soto.

The Fight:

            Once again we know where this fight is headed; to the mat.  Warren's striking has been very suspect and definitely does not match up with Freire so the most likely outcome is that we will see the standard game plan.  Expect Warren to look for takedowns and win with top control.  The Pitbull's takedown defense was impressive against a solid wrestler in Reis, but Warren is an entirely different breed.  Joe is going to get the fight to the mat and he is going to end up on top.

            However, similar to Hornbuckle, Patricio is able to work off his back and is not an exclusively top control grappler.  This will cause major problems for Warren who has shown suspect submission defense.  He has had to power his way out a few submissions so far, especially against a smaller fighter in Eric Marriott.  If he gets caught by the Pitbull it will not be as easy to power his way out.  Warren needs to be very careful for every minute this fight hits the mat.

            Warren is excellent at maintaining top control and not leaving a lot of room for his opponent to work.  Keeping a tight top control will limit Patricio's ability to work from the bottom.  In his short MMA career Warren has already beaten submission fighters Chase Beebe, Eric Marriott, and Georgi Karakhanyan so he has solid experience. 

Warren does have a legitimate chance to win this fight, but before the competition I took Pitbull to win it all and I am sticking to my pick.  He is completely used to working from the bottom and Warren's submission defense strengthens my confidence the Pitbull will get a hold of something to finish the fight.

Middleweight Final: Bryan ‘The Beast" Baker (13-1) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (29-4)

The fighters:

            Baker was a favorite to make it to the final before the season began and he has come through with the hype.  Baker is 13-1 and his sole loss is against the man about to fight for the UFC Middleweight Belt.  In addition he has defeated some decent talent throughout his career such as Jesse Forbes, Eric Schambari (2X), Rory Singer, and Matt Horwich.  Shlemenko posts a nice record, but will not be Baker's toughest test so far.  However, he should not sleep on this fight because Shlemenko can finish a fight in an instance.

            Shlemenko is a very one dimensional fighter and will look to finish the fight on his feet.  Shlemenko is 29-4 with 18 of those victories coming via KO/TKO.  Despite that fancy pants record the competition has not been stellar, but he has recently defeated Sean Salmon and Jared Hess.  However, let us be honest for a minute.  The reason Shlemenko is in the finals is because Matt Major did nothing except stand in front of him and Jared Hess's knee decided to self destruct in T minus disgusting.  He did show decent submission defense against Hess, but was definitely on his way to a unanimous decision loss if Hess's knee did not give out.  His takedown defense is lacking and he offers no offense once he goes horizontal. 

The Fight:

            As one might conclude through my fighter preview, this should be a relatively simple fight for Baker.  He is stronger, more skilled, and possesses a better ground game.  Taking the fight to the mat should not be too difficult for Baker and what Hess lacked in ground and pound, Baker does not.  Hess is a strong finisher, but usually through way of submission.  Shlemenko can turtle up to defend submissions, but not punches to the face.  In addition, Baker's submission victory over Eric Schambari was incredibly impressive considering Schambari's grappling background.  I just do not see how Baker cannot take the fight to the mat and once it goes there how Shlemenko can win it once it goes there.

            The key to that argument is that Baker will take the fight to the mat.  Despite finishing opponents while standing Baker has some definite holes in his striking and does leave his chin out there.  This could be a huge mistake against a fighter like Shlemenko who lives and dies by the knockout.  If Baker decides to take the fight to the mat then this should be a clear decision for him.  I do believe that Baker is the better stand up fighter as well, but not to the same degree.  So, if Baker decides to keep the fight upright the outcome is less obvious.  In the end I think Baker will take this fight, but I am rooting for Shlemenko.  The idea of Shlemenko trying to stand with Hector Lombard just makes my insides tingle a little bit.