Bellator Finals Preview: Featherweight and Middleweight Tournaments

Tonight marks the completion of Bellator's season 2 tournaments and the completion of the Bellator/WKR Tournament Challenge (results announced Monday).  Hornbuckle and Imada losing definitely made the final round of the challenge very interesting.  It all gets wrapped up tonight though when Patricio Freire takes on Joe Warren and Bryan Baker fights Alexander Shlemenko. 

Featherweight Final:Patricio Freire (14-0) vs. Joe Warren (4-1)

The Fighters:

            This fight has a very similar makeup compared to the welterweight final and that is primarily due to Joe Warren.  Warren is another Olympic level wrestler who is relatively new to the new sport of MMA.  Unlike Askren though, Warren jumped in the deep end intermediate level of the pool instead of fighting scrubs with his first fights (This turned out not to matter with Askren).  His first fights were in the dream featherweight tournament where he beat MMA veterans Chase Beebe and Kid Yamamoto before getting submitted by Bibiano Fernandes.  Warren is more a stereotypical wrestling convert than Askren.  At this point in his career he lacks significant finishing ability, but has a solid top game focused on strong control and smothering opponents.

            Patricio Freire is a top ranked prospect coming out of Brazil who has lived up to the hype so far.  Primarily a jiu-jitsu practitioner, he separates from the pack because he is not completely inept on his feet.  This skill set was put on display in his second round decision win over Wilson Reis.  Reis is an elite jiu-jitsu fighter, but it was Freire's takedown defense and striking that made the difference.  Despite adequate striking ability his main skill set is on the mat and that is where he prefers to be.  A win here would set up a match against Season 1 Featherweight winner Joe Soto.

The Fight:

            Once again we know where this fight is headed; to the mat.  Warren's striking has been very suspect and definitely does not match up with Freire so the most likely outcome is that we will see the standard game plan.  Expect Warren to look for takedowns and win with top control.  The Pitbull's takedown defense was impressive against a solid wrestler in Reis, but Warren is an entirely different breed.  Joe is going to get the fight to the mat and he is going to end up on top.

            Patricio is able to work off his back though and is not an exclusively top control grappler.  This will cause major problems for Warren who has shown suspect submission defense.  He has had to power his way out a few submissions so far, especially against a smaller fighter in Eric Marriott.  If he gets caught by the Pitbull it will not be as easy to power his way out.  Warren needs to be very careful for every minute this fight hits the mat.

            Warren is excellent at maintaining top control and not leaving a lot of room for his opponent to work.  Keeping a tight top control will limit Patricio's ability to work from the bottom.  In his short MMA career Warren has already beaten submission fighters Chase Beebe, Eric Marriott, and Georgi Karakhanyan so he has solid experience. 

           Warren does have a legitimate chance to win this fight, but before the competition I took Pitbull to win it all and I am sticking to my pick.  He is completely used to working from the bottom and Warren's submission defense strengthens my confidence the Pitbull will get a hold of something to finish the fight.

Middleweight Preview After the Jump

SBN coverage of Bellator XXIII

Middleweight Final: Bryan ‘The Beast" Baker (13-1) vs. Alexander Shlemenko (29-4)

The fighters:

            Baker was a favorite to make it to the final before the season began and he has come through with the hype.  Baker is 13-1 and his sole loss is against the man about to fight for the UFC Middleweight Belt.  In addition he has defeated some decent talent throughout his career such as Jesse Forbes, Eric Schambari (2X), Rory Singer, and Matt Horwich.  Shlemenko posts a nice record, but will not be Baker's toughest test so far.  However, he should not sleep on this fight because Shlemenko can finish a fight in an instance.

            Shlemenko is a very one dimensional fighter and will look to finish the fight on his feet.  Shlemenko is 29-4 with 18 of those victories coming via KO/TKO.  Despite that fancy pants record the competition has not been stellar, but he has recently defeated Sean Salmon and Jared Hess.  However, let us be honest for a minute.  The reason Shlemenko is in the finals is because Matt Major did nothing except stand in front of him and Jared Hess's knee decided to self destruct in T minus disgusting.  He did show decent submission defense against Hess, but was definitely on his way to a unanimous decision loss if Hess's knee did not give out.  His takedown defense is lacking and he offers no offense once he goes horizontal. 

The Fight:

            As one might conclude through my fighter preview, this should be a relatively simple fight for Baker.  He is stronger, more skilled, and possesses a better ground game.  Taking the fight to the mat should not be too difficult for Baker and what Hess lacked in ground and pound, Baker does not.  Hess is a strong finisher, but usually through way of submission.  Shlemenko can turtle up to defend submissions, but not punches to the face.  In addition, Baker's submission victory over Eric Schambari was incredibly impressive considering Schambari's grappling background.  I just do not see how Baker cannot take the fight to the mat and once it goes there how Shlemenko can win it once it goes there.

            The key to that argument is that Baker will take the fight to the mat.  Despite finishing opponents while standing Baker has some definite holes in his striking and does leave his chin out there.  This could be a huge mistake against a fighter like Shlemenko who lives and dies by the knockout.  If Baker decides to take the fight to the mat then this should be a clear decision for him.  I do believe that Baker is the better stand up fighter as well, but not to the same degree.  So, if Baker decides to keep the fight upright the outcome is less obvious.  In the end I think Baker will take this fight, but I am rooting for Shlemenko.  The idea of Shlemenko trying to stand with Hector Lombard just makes my insides tingle a little bit.