Betting odds announced for Lesnar/Velasquez, same as Lesnar/Carwin?
Brock Lesnar's 6th fight was booked as the biggest in UFC history despite the relative inexperience of both fighters. We saw Brock tested, we saw him pushed to the limit. He was hanging on by a finger and managed to pull himself back up and climbed to the top of the mountain mere minutes later. Many saw the outcome as a true measure of heart, an improved submission game, and a testament to the albino gorilla’s chin. But what about that striking game? Was Carwins power something that he couldnt have prepared for and still managed to overcome, or has the champs true weakness been exposed? I myself was eager to see some of my many questions answered and I found it very interesting to read the changed opinions of many after the fight. A lot of posters were giving Brock credit for the first time and all though they may not like him the majority seem to feel he finally deserves and has earned his place at the top of the division. As an avid Lesnar fan I found myself in uncharted territory. Even in Lesnars only loss he still dominated 95% of the fight, but this time he was man handled like a rag doll for the entire first round, most scored it 10-8 and i even saw a 10-7 on another web site. While many feel Carwin blew the best chance of beating Brock I still can't get past that 1st round. With that said i feel the year layoff did create a little ring rust and i do expect his striking to improve. Even if a weakness has been exposed i doubt Cain Velasquez is the one who will capitalize. I see JDS as a much bigger threat, but will Vegas agree?
The odds for Lesnar/Carwin dramatically changed by the time fight night arrived. Lesnar started out over a 2-1 favorite but the odds settled at -150/+120. I felt most posters on here had less confidence in Cain after the fight then they had before, but coincidentally the odds have been announced at the exact same -150/+120. In my eyes this means that vegas feels that Brocks weakness has been exposed. I freely admit that Cains punching speed should allow him to land some easy shots, but for how long? He dosnt have anywhere near the power that Carwins fists possessed, and is expected to come in around 245lbs. Is Vegas still blushing over Cains dramatic KO over Big Nog at the beginning of the year? Dont forget this fight has already been scratched off the Indianapolis card and most expect it on the years end card, meaning Cain will have had approx 10-11 months off. I expect a much improved Lesnar to smother Cain and win via ref stoppage to ground and pound midway through the 3rd. Im personally drooling to get the same odds for Lesnar that i won with over Carwin.
As the fight has not been announced yet most places will not have these odds published. I bet at sportsbook.com and they have the action good as long as the fight takes place before 1/31/11. Fyi i also noticed the Evans/Sho-gun odds had been removed so take that for what its worth. So what do you think? Will this be an easy payday for those of us who like gamble or are these odds right on? Anyone taking Cain as a +120 underdog? I could see many taking a punt at +200 but +120 dosnt seem to be worth the risk in my eyes...
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ufc 121 oct 21st
21st I think… 23rd maybe. Sumtin like that.
Everyone gives cain grief for the size difference in the wrestling department, but if you look at his collegiate career, the dude would manhandle huge guys with the same kind of weight advantages that lesnar has. Plus, this is mma wrestling and a lot less traightforward. His speed in the scrambles is going to be much faster than lesnar’s,and faster than his training partners as well.
The stand up speed shouldhelp, and cain is much more of a technical striker. I agree he doesn’t have the power of jds, but he has been working on that power for a good year now. Is the nog fight an indicator of that? Is nogs chin gone? Lil of side a lil of side b? Dunno…
But in my opinion, I think velasquez will be a tougher fight forlesnar than jds. Lesnar shouldn’t have a problem gettis dos santos down, where as I think he is going to have a terrible time getting cain down, keeping him down, and not being taken down himself.
I see velasquez getting to at least +150, and I plan on a big money (5 dollah) bet
Even a broken clock is right two times a day.
by Chris Toffer on Jul 11, 2010 8:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
the line is getting better and better
I was actually debating a normal bet at +150ish then waiting til the week of the fight for all the “brock is too big” talk and “if carwin can’t stop him nobody can” shenanigans to bump the odds and bet again
Even a broken clock is right two times a day.
by Chris Toffer on Jul 12, 2010 10:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
?
the line is getting better and better
have the odds changed already? there still the same on sportsbook.com?
I like the feeling of hunting down what I feed my family. If there’s a beast out there capable of hunting down Brock Lesnar, he would do it and make me the trophy on his den wall. But the laws of nature dictate that I’m going to be the one who goes into the wild and comes home with the evening’s bounty. - The #1 ranked HW in the world...
by DrewMoney$$$ on Jul 12, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Can’t wait for this match-up and I’m glad we don’t have to wait anther year before we see Brock back in the cage.
As for the odds, I also feel that the same thing may happen as did with Lesnar/Carwin. Cain’s a very dangerous threat and as the fight gets closer the odds should change just like they did with Carwin. When I got to Vegas on the Wednesday before the fight, Carwin was +130, immediately after the weigh-ins Carwin was even money, and then late that same night he was -110.
"Old Dogs does to the screen what old dogs do to the carpet. It's unfortunate that only the latter can be taken out and shot." -Kyle Smith
watchkalibrun.com
whats your prediction for where the odds will settle at by fight time?
I like the feeling of hunting down what I feed my family. If there’s a beast out there capable of hunting down Brock Lesnar, he would do it and make me the trophy on his den wall. But the laws of nature dictate that I’m going to be the one who goes into the wild and comes home with the evening’s bounty. - The #1 ranked HW in the world...
by DrewMoney$$$ on Jul 13, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
i personally don't think we'll see the same thing as last fight
We had the whole “brock coming back from illness lighter than before” and “first fighter his own size” and “carwins a killer” factors.
I’m thinking Lesnar might even get up to -200, with a fight time line of -180.
Cain? Probably +150
Even a broken clock is right two times a day.
a poster named mmachamp on mania has an interesting gambling theory for fights with that much movement.
I have $60 to win $40 on lesnar at -150. Lets say the odds move as you expect and cain ends up at +160 for example. If you then bet $39 on cain at +160 you would win money reguardless of who wins the fight as you have grabbed both fighters at the peak of the movement on there side. You wouldnt win much as these a small amounts to keep the example simple but even winning something small 100% of the time adds up. Obviously its hard to predict which fights will move but its good to keep in mind when you get in early and see a lot of movement follow…
I like the feeling of hunting down what I feed my family. If there’s a beast out there capable of hunting down Brock Lesnar, he would do it and make me the trophy on his den wall. But the laws of nature dictate that I’m going to be the one who goes into the wild and comes home with the evening’s bounty. - The #1 ranked HW in the world...
by DrewMoney$$$ on Jul 14, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
yup
Its basically betting on how a line will move, rather than how a fightwill go down.
Even a broken clock is right two times a day.
by Chris Toffer on Jul 14, 2010 10:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

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