View full size photo »

Here are the odds for the UFC's debut on Versus:

• Jon Jones (-240) vs. Brandon Vera (+190)
  
• Junior Dos Santos (-325) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+250)
• Paul Buentello (+285) vs. Cheick Kongo (-365)
• James Irvin (-135) vs. Alessio Sakara (+105)
• Shannon Gugerty (+300) vs. Clay Guida (-500)
• Eliot Marshall (+160) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (-220)
• Darren Elkins (+125) vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig (-155)
• John Howard (-200) vs. Daniel Roberts (+160)
• Chase Gormley (+190) vs. Brendan Schaub (-240)
• Julio Paulino (+300) vs. Mike Pierce (-500)
• Jason Brilz (-130) vs. Eric Schafer (even)

Odds via MMA Moneyline and SportsBook

SBN coverage of UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones

Obviously there were two big upsets at the top of the card that have helped reshape our understanding of the bantamweight division but WEC 47 was an all around good night for the "dogs".

By WKR's count four true underdogs won last night plus one fighter at even money. If we include George Roop, who lost only due to a questionable point deduction, then six of the eleven "winners" were dogs and four of the five televised fights were upsets.

If unpredictability is what makes athletics exciting then last night contained some serious drama.

Odds breakdown after the jump.

SBN coverage of WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz

Continue reading this post »

"Hi Brittney Palmer!"

View full size photo »

Main Card

• Champ Brian Bowles (-240) vs. Dominick Cruz (+190) for bantamweight title
• Joseph Benavidez (+260) vs. Miguel Torres (-340)
  
• Jens Pulver (+160) vs. Javier Vazquez (-200)
  
• L.C. Davis (even) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (-130)
• Karen Darabedyan (-240) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+190)

Preliminary Card

• Chad George (+325) vs. Scott Jorgensen (-525)
• Erik Koch (+190) vs. Chad Mendes (-240)
• Danny Castillo (-200) vs. Anthony Pettis (+160)
  
• Leonard Garcia (-500) vs. George Roop (+300)
  
• Bendy Casimir (+190) vs. Ricardo Lamas (-240)
• Courtney Buck (+215) vs. Fredson Paixao (-275)

Odds via MMA Moneyline and SportsBook

SBN coverage of WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz

If you have been reading this column in 2009 you know that I have officially defecated the bed sheet. That's right, I went 0-4 at UFC 109. So, let's try to turn things around!

If you bet on Cain Velasquez earlier you are happy
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (even) over Cain Velasquez (-130)
Cain opened up around +200 so if you were smart (like me) you laid a little money on that line hoping that people would come to their senses and the line would drop. Who would've thought that the line would swing back in the other direction. For the early bettors out there the new line is a great way to hedge your bets. Even if you didn't take the  early plunge Cain spends a lot of time on the ground, which is a risk against Nogueira.

The pick your heart wants you to make but your brain has second thoughts on
Wanderlei Silva (-150) over Michael Bisping (+120)
A beloved yet declining MMA legend versus the over-hyped, arrogant TUF product. It isn't hard to see why my heart is being pulled in the sentimental direction. Silva's recent slide (1-3 in the UFC and 1-5 in his past six fights) is reason enough for a smart bettor to lay money against the Brazilian. That being said, I just can't pick Bisping and look at myself in the mirror in the morning. Remember Matt Hamill!

The name "Cro Cop" died long ago
Ben Rothwell (+130) over Mirko Filipovic (-160)
This is a legacy line pure and simple. While I was a huge "Cro Cop" fan (back when Mirko was "Cro Cop") and I am clinging to hope that the fighter from 2006 will return. But Mirko has done nothing in the past two years to warrant him being favored so I am taking Rothwell. (Please god let this reverse jinx work).

Update: I guess that jinx really worked in a quasi-despicable manner. Rothwell is off the card and will be replaced by Anthony Perosh (10-5).

Half listening to the 'Injury Rule'
C.B. Dollaway (+170) over Goran Reljic (-210)
The injury rule states: "stay away from fights with participants coming off injuries" in other words don't bet on any fighter in the fight. So, why am I breaking my own rule? For those that don't know Reljic suffered a potentially career ending back injury in 2008 and is just now making his return. Plus Gornan is in the middle of a wrestling crash course. That is some ominous foreshadowing when Reljic is fighting C.B. Dollaway. Then again, C.B. is known to wet the bed so proceed at your own risk.

SBN coverage of UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez

photo via photos.mmaweekly.com

View full size photo »

For those of you who are degenerate gamblers interested in the odds for this weekend's UFC event WKR has you covered.

Main Card

• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (even) vs. Cain Velasquez (-130)
  
• Michael Bisping (+120) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-150)
  
• George Sotiropoulos (+200) vs. Joe Stevenson (-260)
  
• Ryan Bader (-170) vs. Keith Jardine (+140)
  
• Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (-160) vs. Ben Rothwell (+130)
  

Preliminary Card

• Chris Haseman (+105) vs. Elvis Sinosic (-135)
• Stephan Bonnar (+160) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (-200)
• Brian Foster (+145) vs. Chris Lytle (-170)
• C.B. Dollaway (+170) vs. Goran Reljic (-210)
• Igor Pokrajac (+150) vs. James Te Huna (-180)

Odds via MMA Moneyline and Sportsbook

SBN coverage of UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez

Fresh off the lunacy of a giant parlay that had no chance of ever working it is time for a little more sober analysis of the odds at UFC 109.

The crazy underdog bet that might not be so crazy
Mark Coleman (+325) over Randy Couture (-525)
A lot of observers believe that this line is way too high in Couture's favor, but Randy is such a public commodity (he's Batman for crying out loud!) that it should come as no real surprise. But that doesn't change the fact that there are some question marks following Couture into this fight.

When Randy returned to the UFC he spoke about how his age would limit his activity. Couture mentioned that his body needed more recovery time and training camps needed to be longer and slower to maximize Couture's fighting time. In other words it took Randy 5 hours to do what it used to take him 2 hours. This was a very reasonable analysis on the part of Couture and we saw that general strategy used after he fought and lost to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91. Couture took 287 days off before returning at UFC 102 against Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. But since the Nogueira fight Randy appears to have abandoned the slow and steady in favor of three fights in five months (including the Nogueira fight and the upcoming Coleman fight Couture will have fought three times in 161 days). That is a high pace for any fighter let alone a 47 year old fighter.

How much work and stress can Randy's body really handle? His fight with Nogueira, while exciting, reminded me of two fighters fighting in molasses and Couture was dropped several times. Two months later Randy defeated Brandon Vera but the fight was controversial and many saw Vera winning it.  Despite of the outcome Couture took some serious damage from Vera's kicks and was dropped from a body kick (when was the last time you saw that?). The degradation of Randy's body began a long time ago (as it does with most humans) and the signs are there of someone quickly approaching the end. That being said, Couture is fighting Mark Coleman, an equally old fighter --he is forty-five versus Couture being forty-seven-- who is fighting on his last legs and has serious cardio issues. 

Coleman claims that this is his first true training camp and he has the benefit of working with Shawn Tompkins, one of the former coaches/trainers of Xtreme Couture. While Mark has had some serious bad luck of late the subtle signs exist for a Coleman upset and with the odds being so juicy perhaps he is worth a play.

Fight you should probably stay away from but the odds are just so pretty
Phillipe Nover (+115) over Rob Emerson (-145) 
Why should you stay away from this fight? Phillipe Nover had a seizure immediately before his last fight and was unable to compete. Not to mention Nover suffered a flash knockout to Kyle Bradley (some people thought the stoppage was too quick). Those are usually red flags to stay the hell away from a fighter. But Nover is fighting Rob Emerson. Am I the only one who remembers that Rob Emerson isn't very good? He is 8-8 for crying out loud! 

The veteran vs. the new guy
Ronnys Torres (+105) over Melvin Guillard (-135)
It is somewhat strange to think of Melvin Guillard as a veteran as he is only 26 but he has fought over thirty times--nine of which were inside the UFC. But Melvin has a horrible penchant of sticking his neck out there to be submitted (seven of his eight losses are due to submission) and Torres has an excellent Jiu-Jitsu base (five of his last seven wins came via submission). The only thing that gives me pause is that Torres is cutting thirty pounds. If he doesn't submit Guillard early he may be too tired to in later rounds. 

FIght I really want to bet but will probably chicken out on
Justin Buchholz (+285) over Mac Danzig (-365)
Do you trust Mac Danzig because I sure as hell don't. Danzig has lost three in a row and a loss here and Mac could be calling up Strikeforce or DREAM. I just don't like betting against a guy fighting for his job and especially when he is such a favorite.

SBN coverage of Strikeforce: Miami

View full size photo »

Main Card

• Mark Coleman (+325) vs. Randy Couture (-525)
  
• Nate Marquardt (-525) vs. Chael Sonnen (+325)
• Mike Swick (-200) vs. Paulo Thiago (+160)
  
• Demian Maia (-500) vs. Dan Miller (+300)
  
• Matt Serra (-135) vs. Frank Trigg (+105)
  

Preliminary Card  (Spike TV)

• Justin Buchholz (+285) vs. Mac Danzig (-365)
  
• Melvin Guillard (-135) vs. Ronnys Torres (+105)
  

Preliminary Card (Un-aired)

• Rob Emerson (-145) vs. Phillipe Nover (+115)
  
• Phil Davis (-265) vs. Brian Stann (+205)
• Tim Hague (+160) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (-200)
  
• Joey Beltran (+350) vs. Rolles Gracie (-550)
  

Odds via MMA Moneyline and Sportsbook

SBN coverage of UFC 109: Relentless

Looking over the odds for Strikeforce: Miami I was struck with a thunderbolt. No, not a bolt on the way to Damascus (I claim no divine authority here) but rather an idiotic idea to do a four-way parlay and take all underdogs. If you are already shaking your head and moving your mouse to the 'back' button I understand but hear me out.

A four-way parlay on all the dogs may be insane but it also means you don't have to bet a lot of money to make a big payout. Yeah its risky, but it allows you to risk a small sum in the oft chance of getting lucky and with this card there is a good chance of getting lucky. For instance two of the five televised fights feature GREEN fighters as HUGE favorites and this being MMA anything can happen. So if you are feeling lucky, why not put down ten, fifteen or twenty bucks and have a little fun.

Marius Zaromskis (+200) over Nick Diaz (-260)
Nick Diaz should win this fight. He should take down the Zaromskis and submit him with ease, but let me ask you a question; when was the last time you saw Nick Diaz fight on the ground? Like, really fight on the ground and go for a submission. It would have to be against Takanori Gomi in 2007. Yeah, Diaz submitted Scott Smith but that was after two and a half rounds of boxing. So, Diaz has been bitten by the boxing bug, but that doesn't mean he would be so stupid as to stand and trade with Marius, does it? Yes, yes it does.

Greg Nagy (+300) over Herschel Walker (-500)
Herschel Walker is a freak athlete but he is forty-seven. FORTY FREAKING SEVEN! Shouldn't Walker being staring in a Levitra commercial by now? Watching Herschel Walker's training videos and it is hard not to be underwhelmed. Actually it's hard not to freak out expecting a disaster. While Strikeforce was smart by pairing Walker up against an equally inexperienced fighter I just don't see how Nagy won't be able to get Herschel on his back and sit in his guard for a win. Of course subterfuge might be afoot but CoCo told me to stop being cynical so I won't think about that possibility. Wait a second, isn't picking against Herschel being cynical? D'oh!

Wes Sims (+700) vs. Bobby Lashley (-1500)
Normally, I wouldn't touch a fight like this with a fifteen foot poll. On the tenth season of The Ultimate Fighter, Sims looked like MMA had passed him by worse than football has passed L.T. by. Now, Wes is coming in on short notice to fight a bigger and stronger opponent and you are going to place a bet on him? As I said in the intro, this whole idea is certifiable, but a reader pointed out that this fight is freakishly similar to the Kimbo Slice-Seth Petruzelli fight. Kimbo was 3-0 when he got KO'd out by a late replacement who was former UFC fighter. Lashley is 4-0 facing a late replacement who is former UFC fighter. Coincidence? Hell yes! But it would also be cosmic justice for the way Strikeforce handled this fight and I never bet against karma, especially when I am compiling half-brained four-way parlays.

Marloes Coenen (+330) over Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos (-550)
Right out of the gates this is the weakest upset pick besides Sims over Lashley. I honestly believe Santos will be too strong for Coenen to submit or knockout. That being said "Cyborg" is the second biggest name in female MMA making her the public's fighter. In other words this fight's odds are bloated in Santos' favor and I am gambling (hence, the name of the column) on a crazy upset here. Basically, this is a value bet.

Obviously this 'cuckoo for coco puffs' idea can be tailored to meet your needs and thoughts on each fight. For those that don't want to dance with the devil in the pale moonlight I would suggest parlaying Marius Zaromiskis and Gregy Nagy together. Or, if you believe in Strikeforce's ability to protect (read as: find cans) Herschel Walker and Bobby Lashley, avoid them in your respective bets.

Don't forget Melvin Manhoef is out there at -200, and if Robbie Lawler's pre-fight comments are any indication of in-cage strategy; Melvin may be a smart favorite to bet on.

SBN coverage of Strikeforce: Miami